Etsy shares fell, after the online marketplace posted lower-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and issued a revenue guidance that’s below the Street forecasts.
Etsy is expecting its gross merchandise revenue in the current fiscal first quarter to be between $2.95 billion to $3.15 billion, vs. the year-ago quarter’s revenue of $3.25 billion. Analysts were expecting $3.17 billion.
For the fourth quarter, Etsy posted earnings of 77 cents a share, missing analysts’ estimate of 80 cents a share. Sales of $807.2 million, however, topped the Street expectations of $755.4 million.
“In a stable macro environment, the math would suggest a return to GMS growth rates in the teens in the second half of this year. However, the data and information we are seeing so far in 2023 related to consumer spending shifts and pressure from the macro environment makes us very cautious,” Chief Financial Officer Rachel Glaser mentioned during the company’s earnings call.
ETSY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 40 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 25, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ETSY as a result. In of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ETSY just turned positive on November 25, 2024. Looking at past instances where ETSY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for ETSY crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 26, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ETSY advanced for three days, in of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 242 cases where ETSY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ETSY moved out of overbought territory on December 05, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 55 cases where ETSY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ETSY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ETSY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on December 04, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ETSY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (4.514). P/E Ratio (30.133) is within average values for comparable stocks, (60.217). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.437) is also within normal values, averaging (2.941). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.832) is also within normal values, averaging (5.675).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ETSY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an online marketplace for buying and selling of handmade and vintage goods
Industry InternetRetail