Exxon Mobil (XOM, $77.42) showcases growth plans after a disappointing Q1
After two consecutive good quarters, Exxon Mobil fell a little flat in its latest quarter, due to weak performance from its refining and chemical business.
The two main reasons for such a flat performance, according to the company, were lower than expected margins from the company’s refining and chemical business and second, the substantial downtime for maintenance in both its upstream and downstream businesses. Margins from the refining and polyethylene business in this past quarter were some of the lowest the company has seen in almost a decade.
A number of investors are of the opinion that this trend will continue over the next couple of years. The reason being Exxon plans to spend billions towards upgrading and retooling many of its refineries. Also, the industry as a whole will be going through significant changes over new emissions regulations passed by the IMO, which will drastically reduce fuel oil demand and simultaneously increase demand for ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel.
However, some of the key highlights for the quarter include: ExxonMobil's production for the quarter stood at 3.98 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, more or less flat from the prior quarter but is up 5% compared to Q1 of 2018. The company's offshore Guyana program continues to reap even more rewards as it announced three additional discoveries in the quarter and raised the reserve estimate for the entire area to 5.5 billion barrels. The company also announced its investment and upgrading plans on several projects like Golden Pass LNG facility in Texas, Singapore Complex, and Fawley refinery in the United Kingdom among others.
XOM in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on September 30, 2024
The 10-day moving average for XOM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
XOM moved above its 50-day moving average on September 27, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 296 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XOM moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 69 cases where XOM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 16, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XOM as a result. In of 96 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XOM turned negative on October 16, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 01, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.267) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.194). P/E Ratio (13.160) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.146). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.848) is also within normal values, averaging (4.841). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.111) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.416) is also within normal values, averaging (0.975).
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General Information
a distributer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products
Industry IntegratedOil