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published in Blogs
Mar 31, 2022
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Five Below (FIVE, $160.20) issues guidance below Street expectations

Five Below (FIVE, $160.20) issues guidance below Street expectations

Five Below posted its 2022 guidance that was below consensus, leading to the its shares tumbling on Wednesday.  

For the fourth quarter, the discount retail company posted diluted earnings of $2.49 a share, compared to consensus of $2.48 a share. Revenue of   $996.3 million was slightly below analysts’ forecasts of $1 billion.

The company’s full-year revenue rose +45.2% to $2.85 billion. Earnings per share in the year were $4.95. Both figures were in line with analysts’ expectations.

For the fiscal first quarter of 2022, discount retail company is expecting revenue to range between $644 million and $658 million, assuming a flat to 2% decrease in comparable sales. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect first-quarter revenue of $687 million. The company projects earnings in the range of 54 cents and 62 cents a share, vs. Wall Street consensus of 89 cents.

The outlook from the company reflected  pandemic-driven delays in construction that have resulted in a shift of stores into the second half of the 2022 fiscal year and the first half of 2023. It also includes the ongoing inflationary pressures, according to the company.

Related Ticker: FIVE

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


FIVE in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026

The 10-day moving average for FIVE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on FIVE as a result. In 53 of 71 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FIVE just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where FIVE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.

FIVE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a +6.16% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FIVE advanced for three days, in 235 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for FIVE moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 62%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FIVE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.

FIVE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for FIVE entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FIVE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.251) is normal, around the industry mean (2.298). P/E Ratio (21.032) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.260). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.984) is also within normal values, averaging (1.159). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.093) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.484) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. FIVE’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), Best Buy Company (NYSE:BBY), Tractor Supply Co (NASDAQ:TSCO), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE), GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME), Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI), RH (NYSE:RH), 1-800-FLOWERS.COM (NASDAQ:FLWS).

Industry description

The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Specialty Stores Industry is 4.62B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 3.1K to 50.98B. ANCTF holds the highest valuation in this group at 50.98B. The lowest valued company is SIMPQ at 3.1K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was 3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 10%. EVGO experienced the highest price growth at 55%, while HTLM experienced the biggest fall at -22%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was -13%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -24% and the average quarterly volume growth was -35%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 60
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 62
Profit Risk Rating: 88
Seasonality Score: 4 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

a retaier of clothing and other accessories for teens

Industry SpecialtyStores

Industry
Discount Stores
Address
701 Market Street
Phone
+1 215 546-7909
Employees
24600
Web
https://www.fivebelow.com
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