Five Below (FIVE, $160.20) issues guidance below Street expectations
Five Below posted its 2022 guidance that was below consensus, leading to the its shares tumbling on Wednesday.
For the fourth quarter, the discount retail company posted diluted earnings of $2.49 a share, compared to consensus of $2.48 a share. Revenue of $996.3 million was slightly below analysts’ forecasts of $1 billion.
The company’s full-year revenue rose +45.2% to $2.85 billion. Earnings per share in the year were $4.95. Both figures were in line with analysts’ expectations.
For the fiscal first quarter of 2022, discount retail company is expecting revenue to range between $644 million and $658 million, assuming a flat to 2% decrease in comparable sales. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect first-quarter revenue of $687 million. The company projects earnings in the range of 54 cents and 62 cents a share, vs. Wall Street consensus of 89 cents.
The outlook from the company reflected pandemic-driven delays in construction that have resulted in a shift of stores into the second half of the 2022 fiscal year and the first half of 2023. It also includes the ongoing inflationary pressures, according to the company.
FIVE in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on May 05, 2022
The 10-day Moving Average for FIVE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 05, 2022. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Current price $135.70 is below $190.54 the lowest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 04/26/22 - 05/26/22, the price experienced a -16% Downtrend, while the week of 05/19/22 - 05/26/22 shows a +10% Uptrend.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 25, 2022. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FIVE as a result. In 51 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FIVE turned negative on April 25, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 56 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
FIVE moved below its 50-day Moving Average on April 29, 2022 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FIVE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for FIVE entered a downward trend on May 26, 2022. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FIVE's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
The Stochastic Indicator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 45 of 56 cases where FIVE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Following a +18.53% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FIVE advanced for three days, in 260 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
FIVE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 59%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.51.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.725) is normal, around the industry mean (8.093). P/E Ratio (27.397) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.917). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.071) is also within normal values, averaging (1.401). FIVE has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.029). P/S Ratio (2.682) is also within normal values, averaging (31.210).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. FIVE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
The average market capitalization across the Specialty Stores Industry is 6.4B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 48 to 301.7B. HD holds the highest valuation in this group at 301.7B. The lowest valued company is CALI at 48.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was -1.05%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.94%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.01%. CYYHF experienced the highest price growth at 43.87%, while ECXJ experienced the biggest fall at -48.89%.
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was 1.49%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 81.72% and the average quarterly volume growth was 148.3%
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Stocks in the group have a Positive Outlook today, backed by the BollingerBands Indicator. Tickeron has a positive outlook on this group and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 42%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.07 to 1.
31 stocks in the group of tickers exhibit a similar positive trend based on the 15 indicator with an average likelihood of 76%.
The most notable companies in this group are Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Lowe's Companies (NYSE:LOW), AutoZone (NYSE:AZO), Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), Best Buy Company (NYSE:BBY), Advance Auto Parts (NYSE:AAP), Bath & Body Works (NYSE:BBWI), GameStop Corp (NYSE:GME), Five Below (NASDAQ:FIVE).
The average market capitalization across the group is 8.1B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 0 to 311.2B. HD holds the highest valuation in this group at 311.2B. The lowest valued company is FRGAP at 0.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was 2.77%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was -9.22%, and the average quarterly price growth was -27.71%. CYYHF experienced the highest price growth at 43.87%, while MSSV experienced the biggest fall at -32.83%.
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The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was 50.99%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 94.98% and the average quarterly volume growth was 290.61%
- 5/21/22 6:24 AM: The volume for Kingfisher stock increased for one day, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 225% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
- 5/17/22 6:45 AM: The volume for Vroom stock increased for four consecutive days, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 182% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
- 5/14/22 4:17 AM: The volume for Vroom stock increased for three consecutive days, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 191% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows