Guess? hits upper rail of channel and generates a bearish signal
Fashion and clothing company Guess? (NYSE: GES) has been struggling over the past year. Looking at Investor’s Business Daily’s ratings’ system, the stock gets a composite score of only 16. The EPS rating is well below average at 29 and the Relative Price Strength is even worse at 18.
Over the last four months, a downward sloped trend channel has formed and the stock is hitting the upper rail of the channel at this time. We see that the upper rail connects the highs from March and May while the lower rail connects the lows from March, April, and June.
We see also that the stochastic readings are in overbought territory and just performed a bearish crossover on July 17. The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine also generated a bearish signal on the same date. The signal shows a confidence level of 76% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on Guess? have been successful 82% of the time.
Looking at the fundamentals for Guess? we see that the earnings declined by 9% in the most recent quarter and are expected to decline by 19.4% in the next report. The management efficiency measurements are also below average. The return on equity is only 9.2% and the profit margin is very low at 4.2%.
GES in downward trend: price expected to drop as it breaks its higher Bollinger Band on April 24, 2025
GES broke above its upper Bollinger Band on April 24, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 48 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 72 cases where GES's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GES declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for GES entered a downward trend on April 21, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 22, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GES as a result. In of 95 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GES just turned positive on April 22, 2025. Looking at past instances where GES's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GES moved above its 50-day moving average on April 24, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GES crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on April 30, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GES advanced for three days, in of 279 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.593) is normal, around the industry mean (3.964). P/E Ratio (10.809) is within average values for comparable stocks, (110.742). GES's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.444). Dividend Yield (0.034) settles around the average of (0.028) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.839) is also within normal values, averaging (1.139).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. GES’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GES’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a producer and a distributor of designer jeans and apparel
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail