Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Drops -18.4% Following SpaceX Announcement: Analysts See Overdone Reaction
Key Takeaways
- Howmet Aerospace (HWM) declined roughly 18.4% over the past 30 days, falling from $283.71 (August 10 close) to $231.53 (September 8 close).
- The selloff was triggered by Elon Musk's announcement that SpaceX (SPCX) plans to cast its own industrial gas turbine blades and vanes, raising competitive concerns in Howmet's fastest-growing business segment.
- Howmet posted its steepest one-day loss since April 2025 on August 31 (-7.5%) and followed with another 10.7% decline on September 8.
- Several major Wall Street firms, including Citi, Bernstein, and Deutsche Bank, described the selloff as overdone, citing long-term supply agreements extending through 2030 and robust underlying demand.
- Fundamentals remain strong: second-quarter revenue rose 24% year over year, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance.
Understanding Howmet Aerospace's Position in Key Markets
Howmet Aerospace is a Pittsburgh-based manufacturer of advanced engineered products for the aerospace, defense, and industrial gas turbine markets. The company produces airfoils, turbine blades and vanes, fastening systems, forged wheels, and engineered structures used across commercial aircraft, military platforms, and power generation equipment.
Howmet holds a leading position in the casting of high-temperature-section blades and vanes for industrial gas turbines, a highly concentrated niche it shares with only a handful of specialized producers. The company is a key supplier to major aircraft manufacturers such as Boeing (BA) and Airbus, and its industrial gas turbine business has become one of its fastest-growing segments, driven by surging electricity demand tied to artificial intelligence data centers. Investors closely follow Howmet because of its exposure to multi-year commercial aerospace build rates, strong aftermarket activity, and the rapidly expanding power generation supply chain. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock Price Performance Over 30 Days and the Quarter
Over the last 30 days, Howmet shares fell from a closing level of $283.71 on August 10 to $231.53 on September 8, a decline of approximately 18.4%. The move was not gradual: the stock held near the $280 level through mid-August, slipped modestly into late August, and then suffered two sharp single-session drops of 7.5% (August 31) and 10.7% (September 8).
The quarterly picture tells a different story. For most of the three-month period, Howmet was in a strong uptrend, reaching an all-time high near $310 in early August on the back of robust earnings and AI-driven gas turbine demand. The late-August and early-September reversal erased a significant portion of those gains, but shares remained well above year-ago levels and in positive territory for 2026, illustrating how quickly sentiment can shift even for a company with strong fundamentals.
What Triggered the Recent Selloff in HWM
The primary catalyst was Elon Musk's announcement, in late August, that SpaceX (SPCX) intends to bring blade-and-vane casting in-house for its industrial gas turbines, targeting a 20-gigawatt power project serving AI data centers in Bastrop, Texas. Musk identified blade and vane casting as the key bottleneck in turbine production, stating that internal production could bring new units online up to 18 months sooner. Because Howmet is the leading public supplier of these components, the news raised fears that a well-funded entrant could reduce future demand and weaken the pricing power Howmet has enjoyed amid supply shortages.
The market's initial reaction was sharp, sending the stock down 7.5% on August 31 and triggering further selling pressure in the following sessions. However, Wall Street analysts broadly pushed back. Citigroup reiterated a Buy rating with a $329 price target and placed the stock on an upside catalyst watch, while Bernstein raised its target to $328 from $248 and argued that Howmet's long-term supply agreements, some extending through 2030, would limit the impact. Deutsche Bank likewise downplayed the competitive threat, noting that Tesla (TSLA)-affiliated SpaceX could still source from established suppliers.
Quarterly Drivers Behind Howmet's Earlier Gains
For most of the quarter, Howmet benefited from a powerful combination of commercial aerospace recovery and surging industrial gas turbine demand tied to AI data center electricity needs. In early August, the company reported second-quarter revenue of $2.55 billion, up 24% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.33, up 46% from a year earlier. Management raised full-year 2026 guidance to revenue of approximately $10.0 billion to $10.1 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $5.23 to $5.31, reflecting strong demand for aircraft parts and replacement components.
Howmet's industrial gas turbine business was a standout, with first-quarter revenue up 39% year over year and 2025 growth of 25%. The company also signaled aggressive capacity expansion, with plans to lift blade production capacity by as much as 38% versus the first quarter of 2025. The quarter's trajectory — a strong rally into a record high followed by a sentiment-driven reversal — underscores how competitive headlines in a high-multiple stock can temporarily overwhelm otherwise favorable fundamentals. From what I see, using Tickeron’s AI Trend Prediction Engine helped confirm the underlying demand trends here.
Key Factors to Monitor for HWM Going Forward
Investors will be watching how Howmet's management addresses the SpaceX narrative in upcoming investor conferences and whether the company provides additional detail on capacity expansion, customer commitments, and its industrial gas turbine revenue trajectory. The company's next earnings report will be a key checkpoint, with the market focused on whether strong aerospace and gas turbine demand continues to translate into higher revenue and margin guidance.
Broader factors to monitor include commercial aircraft production rates at Boeing (BA) and Airbus, the pace of AI data center electricity demand, defense spending trends, and any signs of pricing pressure across the fastener and engine components supply chain. Macroeconomic conditions, including interest rates and industrial-sector sentiment, may also influence a stock that trades at a premium valuation. As always, these considerations are informational and do not constitute investment advice.
AI Tools in My Research Process
In my analysis of volatile situations like this, I frequently turn to Tickeron’s AI Trading Bots to evaluate systematic strategies across different timeframes. The platform offers hundreds of bots with transparent performance data, allowing me to cross-check signals and align approaches with my risk parameters without replacing my own judgment.
Disclaimer
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
HWM's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for HWM moved out of oversold territory on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 14 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 13 of the 14 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 01, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HWM as a result. In 56 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HWM just turned positive on September 24, 2026. Looking at past instances where HWM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 45 of 57 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +2.25% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HWM advanced for three days, in 255 of 351 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
HWM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HWM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for HWM entered a downward trend on September 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HWM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: HWM's P/B Ratio (15.873) is slightly higher than the industry average of (6.305). P/E Ratio (49.207) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.116). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.450) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.081) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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