Just about every investor will face a moment in their career where they say, “I wish I would’ve invested in that company or asset 10 years ago.” It’s a cold, hard reality of investing over time. We’ll all have plenty of “missed opportunities,” whether it’s a stock you didn’t buy, a strategy you didn’t invest in, a real estate deal that fell through, or in the current era, a cryptocurrency wager you didn’t make.
There’s not a whole lot of benefit in dwelling on a missed opportunity, but I’m going to anyway in this post. It’s not in an effort to rub salt in anyone’s wound. The goal is to remind investors of the benefits – and compounding power – of smart, long-term investment choices. Specifically, investing in companies that have solid management, robust earnings growth, and widely embraced brands. Those are the types of companies with the potential to deliver attractive returns – for investors who stick with them.
I’ve picked 5 companies at random, and I took a look at how much a $10,000 investment would have grown over the last five years. To note, I assumed the investor took any dividends as cash, my napkin math below represents price returns versus total returns. Also, returns are as of May 25, 2018.
Facebook (ticker: FB) – $10,000 invested on January 1, 2013 would be worth $76,067.
Netflix (ticker: NFLX) – $10,000 invested on January 1, 2013 would be worth $107,503.
Apple (ticker: AAPL) – $10,000 invested on January 1, 2013 would be worth $29,654.
Visa (ticker: V) – $10,000 invested on January 1, 2013 would be worth $29,101.
Costco (ticker: COST) – $10,000 invested on January 1, 2013 would be worth $17,341.
As you can see, not every longer-term play was as gangbusters as Netflix, Facebook or even Amazon. But that’s not the point. The point is that finding quality companies and making a smart, committed trade can pay off – and there are plenty of ways to do it.
That being said, I wouldn’t advocate for picking one company and investing everything in it, quite the opposite in fact. I like the strategy of building a diversified portfolio with 90% of my liquid net worth and then investing the other 10% in a bet of some kind, whether in an individual security or perhaps even cryptocurrency if that’s your thing.
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The Aroon Indicator for COST entered a downward trend on May 26, 2023. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 125 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 125 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for COST moved out of overbought territory on June 06, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 56 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where COST declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 26, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on COST as a result. In of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for COST just turned positive on May 30, 2023. Looking at past instances where COST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
COST moved above its 50-day moving average on May 26, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for COST crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 31, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where COST advanced for three days, in of 387 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
COST may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. COST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 59, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (9.615) is normal, around the industry mean (11.589). COST has a moderately high P/E Ratio (37.879) as compared to the industry average of (22.707). COST's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.750) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.028). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.965) is also within normal values, averaging (1.134).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a company which sells goods through membership warehouses
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with TGT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then TGT could also see price increases.
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|DG - COST|
|WMT - COST|
|BJ - COST|
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