Is “Irrational Exuberance” Back?
More and more asset managers sound alarms about the markets. The recent one comes from Mary Callahan Erdoes from J.P. Morgan Asset management. She points out to the run of Russell 2000 (the index of small-cap stocks) – is up almost 10% this year (through yesterday’s close).
The run of FAANG stocks continues (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet). The warning signs sound louder and louder.
Are the investors getting more and more complacent? Where are we on the standard cycle of the investor's emotions: Optimism, Excitement, Thrill, Euphoria, Anxiety, Denial, Fear, Desperation, Panic, Capitulation, Despondency, Depression is anybody’s guess?
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NFLX in -0.99% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on September 10, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where NFLX declined for three days, in 219 of 311 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NFLX moved out of overbought territory on August 26, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 29 of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 64%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NFLX as a result. In 54 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NFLX turned negative on September 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 22 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 50%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 39 of 54 cases where NFLX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
NFLX moved above its 50-day moving average on August 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NFLX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 14, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Following a +5.67% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NFLX advanced for three days, in 226 of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
NFLX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 171 of 265 cases where NFLX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 65%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 27 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NFLX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NFLX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.086) is normal, around the industry mean (20.500). P/E Ratio (25.258) is within average values for comparable stocks, (110.816). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.485) is also within normal values, averaging (4.714). NFLX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.015). P/S Ratio (7.148) is also within normal values, averaging (2.946).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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a provider of online movie rental subscription services
Industry MoviesEntertainment
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