Is It Too Late to Buy Surging Homebuilders?
“We are currently experiencing the strongest housing market I have seen in my 30 years at Toll Brothers, and we continue to increase prices in nearly all of our communities.” --Douglas Yearley, CEO of Toll Brothers
The pandemic and all of its associated restrictions have produced an unlikely boom in housing. But maybe we should have expected it -- with the surge in online and remote work, and with corporations moving quickly to expand digital infrastructure, many Americans can now work from anywhere. In many cases, that has meant migrating out of major U.S. cities and relocating into more rural areas, where people can afford homes with office space.
According to Toll Brothers last earnings report, the number of contracts for new homes increased 68% to 3,407 units from last year, and the contract value rose 63% to $2.74 billion. The momentum is poised to continue: Toll’s home-building deliveries rose 10% from a year ago to 2,940, and the company expects around 1,675 home deliveries in the first quarter with an average price between $780,000 and $800,000.
With the pandemic still raging and many companies extending work-remote capabilities, the migration out of cities and into rural areas with homes may just be getting started. Companies like Toll Brothers, Pulte Homes, and KB Homes may stand to benefit.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
TOL in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 08, 2026
TOL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 30 cases where TOL's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TOL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 21 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 55 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 42 of 56 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Following a +1.38% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 225 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TOL as a result. In 58 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved below the 200-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.474) is normal, around the industry mean (1.963). P/E Ratio (11.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.943). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding
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