“We are currently experiencing the strongest housing market I have seen in my 30 years at Toll Brothers, and we continue to increase prices in nearly all of our communities.” --Douglas Yearley, CEO of Toll Brothers
The pandemic and all of its associated restrictions have produced an unlikely boom in housing. But maybe we should have expected it -- with the surge in online and remote work, and with corporations moving quickly to expand digital infrastructure, many Americans can now work from anywhere. In many cases, that has meant migrating out of major U.S. cities and relocating into more rural areas, where people can afford homes with office space.
According to Toll Brothers last earnings report, the number of contracts for new homes increased 68% to 3,407 units from last year, and the contract value rose 63% to $2.74 billion. The momentum is poised to continue: Toll’s home-building deliveries rose 10% from a year ago to 2,940, and the company expects around 1,675 home deliveries in the first quarter with an average price between $780,000 and $800,000.
With the pandemic still raging and many companies extending work-remote capabilities, the migration out of cities and into rural areas with homes may just be getting started. Companies like Toll Brothers, Pulte Homes, and KB Homes may stand to benefit.
TOL's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on March 04, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 321 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 321 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 14, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on February 12, 2024. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 58 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 316 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 52, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.743) is normal, around the industry mean (6.169). P/E Ratio (9.084) is within average values for comparable stocks, (88.653). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.922) is also within normal values, averaging (1.408). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.007) as compared to the industry average of (0.043). P/S Ratio (1.264) is also within normal values, averaging (75.155).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a designer of single family homes
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.