Lennar's (LEN, $98.24) delivery forecast is below analysts' expectations, amid supply challenges
Homebuilding company Lennar Corp.’s fourth quarter delivery forecast is lower than analysts’ expectations, as supply chain challenges in the homebuilding industry weigh on outlook.
"During the third quarter, our company and the homebuilding industry as a whole continued to experience unprecedented supply chain challenges which we believe will continue into the foreseeable future," Lennar Executive Chairman Stuart Miller said.
Lennar cited land supply chain challenges due to delays in permit approvals. The company said it expects to deliver about 18,000 homes in the fourth quarter, compared with analysts’ expectations of 20,343 homes, according to Refinitiv data.
Orders increased +4.6% to 16,277 homes in the third-quarter. Deliveries in the quarter increased to 15,199 units from 13,842 units.
Average price for homes delivered rose +8% to $428,000.
Net earnings attributable to the company surged +111% to $1.41 billion, or $4.52 per share, in the quarter ended Aug. 31.
Revenue increased +18.2% to $6.94 billion, exceeding analysts' expectations of $6.87 billion.
LEN's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for LEN moved out of oversold territory on April 11, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Current price $76.74 crossed the resistance line at $76.39 and is trading between $77.60 resistance and $76.39 resistance lines. Throughout the month of 04/12/22 - 05/13/22, the price experienced a +0.82% Uptrend, while the week of 05/06/22 - 05/13/22 shows a -2% Downtrend.
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 13, 2022. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LEN as a result. In 55 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +7.66% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LEN advanced for three days, in 189 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
LEN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LEN turned negative on May 11, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 75%.
LEN moved below its 50-day Moving Average on May 05, 2022 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LEN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for LEN entered a downward trend on April 19, 2022. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 44%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.14.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 34 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.097) is normal, around the industry mean (5.887). P/E Ratio (6.017) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.200). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.742) is also within normal values, averaging (2.341). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.054) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.830) is also within normal values, averaging (107.530).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LEN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 67 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
The average market capitalization across the Homebuilding Industry is 4B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 789.7K to 25.8B. LEN.B holds the highest valuation in this group at 25.8B. The lowest valued company is EGBB at 789.7K.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was -0.8%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.57%. EGBB experienced the highest price growth at 40.88%, while STHI experienced the biggest fall at -32.89%.
- 5/5/22 4:57 AM: Lennar (LEN, $83.43) was a top weekly gainer, with a +10.08% jump
- 4/26/22 5:09 AM: Lennar (LEN, $79.6) was a top weekly gainer, with a +5.22% jump
- 3/19/22 4:49 AM: Lennar (LEN, $92.54) was a top weekly gainer, with a +6.9% jump
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was 19.35%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 15.07% and the average quarterly volume growth was 100.84%
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Stocks in the group have a Negative Outlook today, backed by the MA200MA50 Indicator. Tickeron has a negative outlook on this group and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 48%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.04 to 1.
27 stocks in the group of tickers exhibit a similar negative trend based on the Declines indicator with an average likelihood of 68%.
The most notable companies in this group are DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), Pultegroup (NYSE:PHM), KB Home (NYSE:KBH).
The average market capitalization across the group is 5.6B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 0 to 32.3B. CAOVF holds the highest valuation in this group at 32.3B. The lowest valued company is HOVNP at 0.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the group was -3.79%. For the same group, the average monthly price growth was -3.9%, and the average quarterly price growth was -21.58%. BZH experienced the highest price growth at 6.49%, while STHI experienced the biggest fall at -32.89%.
- 5/12/22 5:38 AM: Tri Pointe Homes (TPH, $19.19) was a top loser this week, declining -13.48%. Expect a Downtrend reversal
- 5/12/22 5:38 AM: Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC, $25.54) was a top loser this week, declining -13.31%. Expect a Downtrend reversal
- 5/5/22 4:57 AM: DR Horton (DHI, $75.57) was a top weekly gainer, with a +7.82% jump
The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the group was 242.11%. For the same stocks of the group, the average monthly volume growth was 257.97% and the average quarterly volume growth was 484.88%
- 4/30/22 5:51 AM: The volume for Tri Pointe Homes stock increased for one day, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 348% of the 65-Day Volume Moving Average
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows