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Mar 11, 2019

Lockheed Martin (LMT, $300.95) walks away from $15 billion Saudi arms deal

Lockheed Martin, best known for the F-35 fighter, has been awarded a $945.9 million down payment on a $15 billion missile-defense agreement for Saudi -- called the Arabia Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) -- by the Pentagon. This move could potentially alleviate the long standing tensions between Saudi and the Western governments. It is also the first step in a larger deal struck last year between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia that will eventually benefit the Saudi kingdom with 44 THAAD launchers, missiles and affiliated equipment.

Tensions between the Saudi and the U.S government had increased over the Saudi-linked killing of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi last October amidst criticism of Saudi’s role in an on-going civil war in Yemen. This led to a rethinking of the U.S.-Saudi relationship over military deals. But this new deal could be a good sign that the THAAD deal will proceed uninterrupted. The $15 billion THAAD agreement was one of the few specific deals reached as part of a comprehensive $110 billion U.S./Saudi arms package negotiated in 2017.

The THAAD system is designed to shoot down short- and medium-range ballistic missiles on their descent. Its successful operations include deterring Korean rockets over the Pacific last year. It is also a potential deterrent to Iran, which is why the system is of interest to both Saudi Arabia and Israel among other U.S. allies in the region.

Even though the THAAD deal appears safe, others have not been so lucky. A case in point is General Dynamics whose land-systems business was significantly impacted by diplomatic issues between Canada and an unnamed customer. General Dynamics (GD) in December launched a public campaign against attempts by Canadian government officials to block a $13 billion sale of Canada-made armoured vehicles to the Saudis.

Related Ticker: LMT

LMT in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on July 12, 2024

The 10-day moving average for LMT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on July 12, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 05, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on LMT as a result. In of 89 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for LMT turned negative on July 03, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LMT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 51 cases where LMT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

LMT moved above its 50-day moving average on July 12, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LMT advanced for three days, in of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 266 cases where LMT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 75%.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (16.611) is normal, around the industry mean (7.933). P/E Ratio (16.973) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.151). LMT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.818) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.947). LMT has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.027) as compared to the industry average of (0.015). P/S Ratio (1.650) is also within normal values, averaging (4.210).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are GE Aerospace (NYSE:GE), Lockheed Martin Corp (NYSE:LMT), Boeing Company (NYSE:BA), Northrop Grumman Corp (NYSE:NOC), Spirit Aerosystems Holdings (NYSE:SPR), Virgin Galactic Holdings (NYSE:SPCE).

Industry description

Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Aerospace & Defense Industry is 13.02B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.66K to 174.05B. GE holds the highest valuation in this group at 174.05B. The lowest valued company is ASDN at 1.66K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Aerospace & Defense Industry was 4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 27%. AZ experienced the highest price growth at 72%, while BLIS experienced the biggest fall at -31%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Aerospace & Defense Industry was 6%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -60% and the average quarterly volume growth was -14%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 55
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 79
Profit Risk Rating: 70
Seasonality Score: -2 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a manufacturer of components and systems for aerospace and defense use

Industry AerospaceDefense

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Aerospace And Defense
Address
6801 Rockledge Drive
Phone
+1 301 897-6000
Employees
122000
Web
https://www.lockheedmartin.com
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