MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Shares Drop -28.6% in 30 Days Amid Index Changes and Sector Pressures
Key Takeaways
- MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) shares fell approximately 28.6% over the last 30 days, dropping from $396.26 on June 22 to $283.03 by July 21, 2026.
- Removal from major Russell value benchmarks — including the Russell 1000 Value and Russell Midcap Value indexes — triggered forced institutional selling and amplified downside momentum.
- A broader semiconductor sector selloff, fueled by concerns over cooling AI-driven chip demand and hyperscaler spending sustainability, compounded MTSI-specific pressures.
- Over the full quarter, the stock is roughly flat (+2.2%), having surged to a 52-week high of $418.90 in May before erasing all gains during the July correction.
- Analyst consensus remains at Moderate Buy with an average price target of approximately $335, though Susquehanna recently lowered its target from $350 to $300.
- MACOM's next earnings report, scheduled for July 30, 2026, will be a critical catalyst for determining whether the selloff reflects transient index dynamics or deeper fundamental concerns.
A Closer Look at MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) and Its Market Position
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. is a semiconductor company specializing in high-performance analog, microwave, millimeter-wave, and photonic semiconductor solutions. Headquartered in Lowell, Massachusetts, the company designs and manufactures products that include amplifiers, switches, modulators, detectors, and integrated circuits — all engineered to optimize signal integrity, power management, and data transmission across both digital and optical domains. MACOM's components serve as critical building blocks for next-generation communications infrastructure across four primary end markets: data centers, telecommunications, industrial and defense, and satellite communications. With a customer base exceeding 6,000 and certifications including IATF16949 automotive and AS9100D aerospace standards, MACOM has established itself as a key supplier in the RF and photonic semiconductor landscape. Investors track the stock closely for its exposure to AI-driven data center growth, 800G and 1.6T optical networking trends, and expanding satellite communications programs.
MTSI Stock Performance: The Last 30 Days Compared to the Quarter
Over the last 30 days, MTSI experienced a sharp decline of approximately 28.6%, falling from its June 22 closing price of $396.26 to $283.03 on July 21, 2026. The selloff accelerated notably in early July, with the stock posting multiple daily declines exceeding 5%, including an 8.1% drop on July 2 and a 7.0% decline on July 7. Trading volume surged well above average during several of these sessions, indicating elevated institutional repositioning. The stock briefly found support near $255 before rebounding to the $283 level in the most recent sessions.
Zooming out to the quarterly view presents a more nuanced picture. From April 22, when MTSI closed at $277.00, the stock is essentially flat at +2.2% through July 21. However, this modest net change masks extraordinary intra-quarter volatility. Following a powerful post-earnings rally in early May, MTSI surged to an all-time high of $418.90 on May 26, driven by strong fiscal second-quarter results and upgraded forward guidance. Since that peak, the stock has declined approximately 32%, effectively giving back all gains from the post-earnings breakout and returning to levels last seen in late April.
Factors Behind the Recent 30-Day Decline in MTSI
The primary catalyst behind MTSI's 30-day decline was the company's removal from several Russell value benchmarks during the annual index reconstitution at the end of June. MACOM was dropped from the Russell 1000 Value, Russell 3000 Value, and Russell Midcap Value indexes. These exclusions forced passive funds and index-tracking institutional investors to sell positions, creating sustained downward pressure irrespective of the company's operational performance.
This index-driven selling was amplified by a broader semiconductor selloff. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped more than 7% in a single session during the period, triggered by a Citi analyst warning questioning whether large cloud platforms would sustain elevated AI infrastructure spending without demonstrating clear returns. Additional pressure came from reports that META planned to sell access to its AI computing capacity, which markets interpreted as a potential signal of overcapacity in the AI hardware supply chain.
MACOM-specific concerns also contributed. Reports of oversupply and mounting price pressure in the satellite communications market raised fears about near-term demand and profitability. Meanwhile, worries surfaced that shifting AI data center technology standards could erode the appeal of some MACOM products. On July 21, Susquehanna cut its price target from $350 to $300 while maintaining a neutral rating. Significant insider selling — totaling approximately $28.8 million worth of shares over the preceding 90 days — added to cautious sentiment, as did valuation assessments from firms like GuruFocus that pegged MTSI as significantly overvalued relative to intrinsic value estimates. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
What Shaped MTSI's Performance Over the Full Quarter
MTSI's quarterly journey was defined by two opposing forces: exceptional fundamental execution in the first half of the period, followed by technical and sentiment-driven selling in the second half. On May 7, MACOM reported fiscal second-quarter results that exceeded expectations — revenue of $289.0 million (up 22.5% year-over-year), adjusted EPS of $1.09, and forward guidance calling for Q3 revenue between $331 million and $339 million, well above analyst estimates of roughly $300 million. Management raised its fiscal 2026 data center growth outlook substantially, citing strong demand for 800G and 1.6T optical products.
The earnings beat triggered a wave of analyst upgrades. Barclays raised its target to $450, Truist lifted its target to $375, Needham boosted to $400, and Stifel increased its target to $450. The stock surged from approximately $310 to above $418 in under three weeks. However, the rally proved unsustainable as the calendar quarter progressed. Profit-taking, combined with the Russell index reconstitution, sector-wide AI demand jitters, and SK Hynix's reported slowdown in high-bandwidth memory expansion, reversed the entire post-earnings advance. By late July, the stock had returned to its pre-earnings trading range, effectively neutralizing what had initially appeared to be a transformative breakout.
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Key Drivers for MTSI Going Forward
The most immediate catalyst for MTSI is its upcoming fiscal third-quarter earnings report, confirmed for July 30, 2026. Management previously guided for Q3 revenue of $331–$339 million and adjusted EPS of $1.31–$1.37. Any deviation from these targets — particularly around data center revenue growth and margin trajectory — will heavily influence the stock's near-term direction. Investors will also scrutinize management's commentary on satellite communications demand, the pace of 800G and 1.6T optical product ramps, and any updates to the full-year data center growth outlook.
Beyond earnings, broader macroeconomic and sector dynamics remain critical. The sustainability of hyperscaler capital expenditure budgets, potential shifts in AI infrastructure spending patterns, and ongoing competitive dynamics in RF and photonic semiconductors will all factor into MTSI's valuation. The stock's elevated inventory levels — with 184 days outstanding as of the last report — warrant monitoring for any signs of demand softness. On the positive side, MACOM's net cash position of approximately $325 million and strong free cash flow generation provide financial flexibility to navigate market turbulence and fund continued R&D investment.
Disclaimer
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MTSI in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026
MTSI moved above its 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 37 of 41 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 24, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTSI as a result. In 69 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTSI just turned positive on September 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTSI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The 10-day moving average for MTSI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +9.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTSI advanced for three days, in 258 of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTSI moved out of overbought territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 33 of the 46 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 72%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTSI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
MTSI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MTSI entered a downward trend on September 24, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 72, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTSI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.812) is normal, around the industry mean (7.975). P/E Ratio (88.713) is within average values for comparable stocks, (165.532). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.730) is also within normal values, averaging (3.761). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.007) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (16.611) is also within normal values, averaging (45.794).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a holding company whose subsidiaries provides high-performance analog semiconductor solutions
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