Macy's (M, $20.42) stock slumps, on warning about sales to come in at lower end of forecast range
Macy's shares plunged on Monday, after the retail company warned that its fourth quarter sales are likely to come in at the lower end of prior forecasts. The company also mentioned that consumer spending is like to face headwinds into the first half of the year.
In an investor update, Macy's CEO Jeff Gennette said weakness in non-peak holidays sales were "deeper than anticipated", even as Black Friday and Christmas week activity were either in-line with or above projections.
Macy's said that it is now expecting fourth quarter earnings hitting its prior guidance of $1.47 to $1.67 per share, and sales to come in at the lower end of its $$8,161 million to $8,401 million forecast range. However, its occasion apparel and gift-giving business segments emerged as areas of strength, and inventory composition and price points were in line with customers' needs (as indicated by Gennette.
“Based on current macro-economic indicators and our proprietary credit card data, we believe the consumer will continue to be pressured in 2023, particularly in the first half, and have planned inventory mix and depth of initial buys accordingly," Gennette added.
M in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on May 29, 2025
The 10-day moving average for M crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 29, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 57 cases where M's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for M just turned positive on May 27, 2025. Looking at past instances where M's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
M moved above its 50-day moving average on May 27, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where M advanced for three days, in of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 184 cases where M Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 23, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on M as a result. In of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where M declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
M broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.744) is normal, around the industry mean (2.405). P/E Ratio (6.005) is within average values for comparable stocks, (30.377). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.697) is also within normal values, averaging (1.022). Dividend Yield (0.059) settles around the average of (0.040) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.147) is also within normal values, averaging (0.612).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. M’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. M’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
an operator of department stores
Industry DepartmentStores
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