Major ETFs see 10-day moving averages cross bearishly below 50-day moving averages
The selling that has hit the market in the last few weeks has taken a toll on a number of index ETFs. Many of them have fallen below their 50-day moving averages. In the case of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), they have just had their 10-day moving averages cross bearishly below their 50-day moving averages.
Looking at each of the charts, it is the first time since October that these ETFs have experienced a bearish crossover in the moving averages and when it happened last fall, it was an ominous sign. The SPY was trading around $275 when the crossover occurred and would eventually fall below $235. The QQQ was trading around $170 when the bearish crossover occurred and it would eventually fall below $145.
In each case, it wouldn’t be until mid-January that the 10-day moving average would cross bullishly back above the 50-day. In the case of the SPY, the ETF was trading just above $260 at the time and it would eventually move up to $295. In the case of the QQQ, it was trading around $162.50 when the 10-day moved back above the 50-day and it would eventually rise above $190 before pulling back again.
SPY in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 25, 2025
SPY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 25, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 34 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SPY's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 363 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In of 71 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on November 05, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 24, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for SPY entered a downward trend on November 26, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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