Major ETFs see 10-day moving averages cross bearishly below 50-day moving averages
The selling that has hit the market in the last few weeks has taken a toll on a number of index ETFs. Many of them have fallen below their 50-day moving averages. In the case of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE: SPY) and the Invesco QQQ Trust (Nasdaq: QQQ), they have just had their 10-day moving averages cross bearishly below their 50-day moving averages.
Looking at each of the charts, it is the first time since October that these ETFs have experienced a bearish crossover in the moving averages and when it happened last fall, it was an ominous sign. The SPY was trading around $275 when the crossover occurred and would eventually fall below $235. The QQQ was trading around $170 when the bearish crossover occurred and it would eventually fall below $145.
In each case, it wouldn’t be until mid-January that the 10-day moving average would cross bullishly back above the 50-day. In the case of the SPY, the ETF was trading just above $260 at the time and it would eventually move up to $295. In the case of the QQQ, it was trading around $162.50 when the 10-day moved back above the 50-day and it would eventually rise above $190 before pulling back again.
SPY in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on February 24, 2025
SPY moved below its 50-day moving average on February 24, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 39 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 21, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In of 70 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on February 21, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 04, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 11 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 454 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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