MGM hits downward sloped trend line and gets a bearish signal at the same time
Casino operator MGM Resorts (NYSE: MGM) has been on a different path from the overall market over the last four and a half months. Like most stocks, MGM rallied from its December low, but it bounced even more sharply than most. From its Christmas Eve low to the February 1 high, the stock gained over 36% while the S&P gained just over 15%. Unfortunately for MGM shareholders, the stock wasn’t able to maintain that momentum and has been trending lower since the February high.
Looking at the daily chart we see that by connecting the February high with the April high we get a downward sloped trend line. After rallying for the last few weeks, the stock is now hitting that trend line and it is overbought based on the stochastic readings and the 10-day RSI.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for MGM on June 14. It shows a confidence level of 70% and it calls for a decline of at least 4% over the next month. Past predictions on MGM have been successful 87% of the time.
The fundamentals for MGM are a bit of a concern as well. The company has only seen earnings grow by 6% over the past three years and they were down 55% in the most recent quarter. The management efficiency measurements are below average as well with a return on equity of 7.5% and a profit margin of 6.8%.
Between the trend line on the chart, the bearish signal from the Trend Prediction Engine, and the subpar fundamentals, things aren’t looking all that great for MGM right now.
MGM's Stochastic Oscillator is remaining in oversold zone for 12 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MGM's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MGM advanced for three days, in of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MGM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 05, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MGM as a result. In of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MGM turned negative on December 06, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MGM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for MGM entered a downward trend on December 20, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MGM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.975) is normal, around the industry mean (12.602). P/E Ratio (14.978) is within average values for comparable stocks, (65.598). MGM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (19.844) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.549). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.043) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.060) is also within normal values, averaging (3.509).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MGM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.
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General Information
a holding company that is primary engaged in the ownership and operation of casino resorts
Industry CasinosGaming