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Microsoft (MSFT, $138.70) shares get an outperform rating and a $150 price target from Cowen analysts

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.

Momentum Indicator for MSFT turns negative, indicating new downward trend

MSFT saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on September 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 48 of the 84 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 57%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for MSFT moved out of overbought territory on August 31, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 15 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 37%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MSFT turned negative on August 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 50%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSFT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.

MSFT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 55 cases where MSFT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.

The 50-day moving average for MSFT moved above the 200-day moving average on August 28, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a +2.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSFT advanced for three days, in 213 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 187 of 280 cases where MSFT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MSFT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.347) is normal, around the industry mean (22.185). P/E Ratio (27.695) is within average values for comparable stocks, (132.019). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.614) is also within normal values, averaging (2.100). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.021) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.161) is also within normal values, averaging (104.726).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.