Morgan Stanley (MS, $47.55) beats analyst's estimates (barely)
Despite a 9% drop on the quarterly earnings, Morgan Stanley, the sixth largest U.S. bank, managed to marginally beat analysts’ estimates.
Morgan Stanley's wealth management business salvaged earnings for the quarter, as it accounts for almost half of the bank’s revenue and helps maintain stability during weak periods for trading and investment banking -- the two segments that suffered during the first quarter due to subdued volatility. Besides the resilience of the wealth management sector, the bank also managed to cut non-interest expenses by 4%, which helped boost its bottom line.
MS's two important metrics reported estimate beating results - quarterly profit came at $2.34 billion, or $1.39 per share versus estimate of $1.17 per share; and revenue fell 7% to $10.29 billion versus an estimate of $9.93 billion.
Overall, wealth management proved to be the only sector that could protect margin against an unfavorable backdrop owing to slowing global economy, absence of interest hike this year, and trade disputes between U.S. and China. Despite this scenario, Morgan Stanley’s wealth management profit margin and its return on equity of 13.1% were comfortably within the targeted range. Perhaps this is also the reason why the company’s CEO has not lifted performance targets for wealth management because the business can produce returns of nearly 25% even in difficult times. Wealth management revenue rose slightly from a year ago, with profit margins holding steady at 27%.
In short, Morgan Stanley is in a better position even than its top rival Goldman Sachs Group (GS), which reported a 20% profit decline and lower revenue across nearly all its major businesses, sending its shares down more than 3%.
MS's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for MS moved out of oversold territory on December 20, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 20 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 20 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 56 cases where MS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on December 24, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MS as a result. In of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MS moved above its 50-day moving average on December 24, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MS advanced for three days, in of 346 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MS turned negative on November 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 39 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for MS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on December 24, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for MS entered a downward trend on December 24, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.694) is normal, around the industry mean (5.562). P/E Ratio (18.056) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.334) is also within normal values, averaging (2.610). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.039) is also within normal values, averaging (113.078).
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a provider of diversified financial services including brokerage, investment management and venture capital services
Industry InvestmentBanksBrokers