Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock Advances +12.3% in 30 Days on Strong Q2 Results and Record Backlog
Key Takeaways
- Northrop Grumman shares rose approximately 12.3% over the 30 days ending in mid-August 2026, from a July 17 close of $521.57 to $585.87.
- The advance followed stronger-than-expected Q2 2026 results, raised full-year guidance, a record backlog, and new multi-year missile-defense framework agreements.
- Shares briefly touched a 52-week low of $479.02 on July 21 before reversing higher, underscoring the volatility around the earnings release.
- Over the trailing three months, NOC is up about 8.4%, reflecting a recovery from a late-June pullback and sustained defense-sector demand.
- Key watch items include third-quarter results expected in late October, B-21 and Sentinel program execution, and conversion of missile-defense demand into revenue.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Company Overview
Northrop Grumman operates as a diversified aerospace and defense technology company through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems. Its portfolio includes the B-21 Raider bomber, Global Hawk autonomous aircraft, F-35 fuselage work, tactical and strategic missiles, missile defense systems, advanced radar and electronic warfare capabilities, satellites, and solid rocket motors. As a prime contractor on long-cycle programs such as B-21 and Sentinel, and a key supplier in national security space and rocket propulsion, Northrop remains closely followed for its exposure to defense budgets, backlog visibility, and execution on classified and international programs. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock Price Performance Over the Last 30 Days and Quarter
Over the last 30 days, NOC climbed from $521.57 on July 17, 2026, to $585.87 at the most recent completed close on Aug. 14, 2026 — a gain of about 12.3%. The path was volatile: shares opened sharply lower on the July 21 earnings session, dipped to $479.02 intraday, and closed at $512.29 before staging a steady multi-week recovery. From that earnings-day close, the stock added roughly 14% through mid-August.
Measured over the trailing three months, the move is more moderate. From the nearest trading session three months earlier, when shares closed at $540.69, NOC advanced about 8.4%. The quarter was choppy, however, with a late-May-to-June slide to $496.02 on June 29 followed by the earnings-driven rebound. Even after the rally, NOC remained below its 52-week high of $774.00.
What Drove NOC Stock Price in the Last 30 Days
The most important catalyst was the July 21 Q2 2026 report. Northrop earned $7.68 per share, beating the $6.82 consensus estimate, while revenue rose 5.1% year over year to $10.88 billion, above the roughly $10.80 billion analysts expected. Management raised full-year sales guidance to $43.75 billion–$44.25 billion and lifted adjusted EPS guidance to $28.60–$29.10, while reaffirming adjusted free cash flow of $3.1 billion–$3.5 billion. Net awards of $20 billion pushed total backlog to a record $105 billion, up 17% from a year earlier, with a second-quarter book-to-bill of 1.84x.
Initially, margin concerns tempered the reaction. Defense Systems and Space margins were pressured by unfavorable cost adjustments on the GEM 63XL rocket motor and the Stand-in Attack Weapon program, and shares briefly hit a 52-week low before recovering. The rally then broadened in early August after Northrop announced more than $3 billion in multi-year framework agreements with the U.S. Department of War and Lockheed Martin (LMT) to accelerate PAC-3 MSE and THAAD component production. Combined with broader aerospace-and-defense strength tied to missile-defense demand, those catalysts carried the stock above $585 by mid-August.
What Drove NOC Stock Performance Over the Last Quarter
The broader multi-month trend was defined by a spring-to-summer reset followed by a demand-driven rebound. From the $540 area in mid-May, shares slid through June to $496.02 on June 29 as investors weighed defense-budget uncertainty and near-term program-margin pressures. Sentiment shifted with the Q2 earnings beat and record backlog, which reinforced the company's multi-year demand visibility. The early-August missile-defense framework agreements then extended the recovery, leaving NOC about 8.4% higher over the trailing three months while still below its prior 52-week peak.
NOC Stock Forecast Drivers: What Investors Should Watch Next
Investors will likely focus on third-quarter results, which are expected in late October based on Northrop's typical reporting schedule. Key items include execution against the raised full-year sales and EPS guidance, second-half margin recovery in Space and Defense Systems, and progress on the B-21 Raider production acceleration agreement and Sentinel program milestones. The anticipated PAC-3 MSE production award later in 2026, further missile-defense orders, and the pace of international sales growth may also influence sentiment. Macro factors such as the U.S. defense budget process, global security spending, and cost pressures on fixed-price development programs remain important risks to monitor. From what I see, these elements will be critical for sustaining the recent momentum.
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Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
NOC in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on August 31, 2026
NOC moved below its 50-day moving average on August 31, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 31 of 51 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for NOC crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 39%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOC declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
The Aroon Indicator for NOC entered a downward trend on September 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NOC's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 33 of 55 cases where NOC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NOC as a result. In 46 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NOC just turned positive on September 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where NOC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +2.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOC advanced for three days, in 206 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
NOC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.189) is normal, around the industry mean (6.438). P/E Ratio (16.764) is within average values for comparable stocks, (59.605). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.493) is also within normal values, averaging (2.578). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.766) is also within normal values, averaging (18.155).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NOC’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a provider of innovative systems, products and solutions in aerospace, electronics and information systems
Industry AerospaceDefense
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