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Aug 12, 2020

Novavax (NVAX, $124.43) reports lower-than-expected Q2 revenue

Novavax   reported  revenue that increased substantially year-over-year, but was lower than analysts' expectations.

The vaccine development company’s revenue of $35.5 million in the latest quarter, compared to $3.4 million in the year-ago quarter.  But the revenue was lower than Wall Street expectations.

During the quarter, the company experienced loss of -$17.5 million, or -30 cents a share share, compared to a net loss of -$39.6 million, or -$1.69 a share for the second quarter of 2019.

Research and development expenses climbed 15% to $34.8 million, primarily due to increased development activities relating to the coronavirus vaccine NVX-CoV2373, according to the company.

Last Friday, Novavax and Japanese drug company Takeda  announced a partnership to develop, produce and commercialize Novavax's coronavirus-vaccine candidate in Japan.

According to Tickeron, NVAX's in Downtrend: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Histogram just turned negative

This is a Bearish indicator signaling NVAX's price could decline. Traders may explore shorting the ticker or looking at put options. In 38 of 39 cases where NVAX's MACD histogram became negative, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 90%.

Current price $124.43 is above $44.60 the highest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 07/10/20 - 08/11/20, the price experienced a +58% Uptrend, while the week of 08/04/20 - 08/11/20 shows a -5% Downtrend.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 30 of 38 cases where NVAX's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 79%.

The Stochastic Indicator may be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 46 of 54 cases where NVAX's Stochastic indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 85%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 35 of 41 cases where NVAX's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 85%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 128 of 143 similar cases where NVAX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 71%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.85 to 1.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (49.59) is normal, around the industry mean (82.86). P/E Ratio (0.00) is within average values for comparable stocks, (78.26). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (5.23). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.08) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (97.25) is also within normal values, averaging (1454.81).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

Related Ticker: NVAX

NVAX in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on February 29, 2024

NVAX moved above its 50-day moving average on February 29, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 32 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 14, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVAX as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVAX just turned positive on January 30, 2024. Looking at past instances where NVAX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for NVAX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVAX advanced for three days, in of 262 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVAX moved out of overbought territory on February 28, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 47 cases where NVAX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVAX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

NVAX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 22, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for NVAX entered a downward trend on February 14, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (49.505) is normal, around the industry mean (28.710). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (126.778). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (6.089). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.890) is also within normal values, averaging (402.645).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Incyte Corp (NASDAQ:INCY), Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), Exelixis (NASDAQ:EXEL), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARWR), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (NASDAQ:ADPT), Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO).

Industry description

Biotechnology involves genetic or protein engineering to produce medicines/therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion-dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development, as companies attempt to continually come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide opportunities for growth for a company in this industry. Discoveries, however, must pass the regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets. Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Celgene Corporation are examples of companies in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Biotechnology Industry is 2.59B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 402 to 541.24B. NVO holds the highest valuation in this group at 541.24B. The lowest valued company is PNEXF at 402.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was 6%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 17%, and the average quarterly price growth was 44%. VANI experienced the highest price growth at 287%, while KA experienced the biggest fall at -69%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was 10%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 55% and the average quarterly volume growth was 180%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 86
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 94
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: 7 (-100 ... +100)
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NVAXDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a company which engages in development of novel recombinant vaccines

Industry Biotechnology

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Biotechnology
Address
21 Firstfield Road
Phone
+1 240 268-2000
Employees
1992
Web
https://www.novavax.com
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NVAX and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVAX has been loosely correlated with CRSP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NVAX jumps, then CRSP could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To NVAX
1D Price
Change %
NVAX100%
+11.45%
CRSP - NVAX
47%
Loosely correlated
-3.93%
THRD - NVAX
42%
Loosely correlated
-1.17%
SYRE - NVAX
38%
Loosely correlated
+5.13%
MRNA - NVAX
37%
Loosely correlated
-5.38%
RCUS - NVAX
35%
Loosely correlated
-0.10%
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