Novavax (NVAX, $240.29) posted wider-than-expected fiscal Q4 loss
Novavax posted a fiscal fourth-quarter loss that’s wider than anticipated by analysts. However, the vaccine development company’s revenue came in higher than expected.
The net loss for the quarter widened to -$2.70 a share from -$1.13 in the year-earlier quarter. FactSet poll shows consensus estimates of a GAAP net loss of -$2.23 a share
Revenue rose $279.7 million from $8.8 million. That's higher than analysts' forecast of $202.4 million. The increase in revenue can be attributed to the company's services under an agreement with CEPI, which raises money for and supports vaccine development, and services to the U.S. government's Operation Warp Speed vaccine-development program.
"With positive efficacy results, including against evolving variant strains, NVX-Cov2373 offers a highly unique profile, including the ability to ship and store the vaccine at traditional refrigerated temperatures," President and CEO Stanley Erck said in a statement.
These attributes, according to Erck , should support emergency-use authorization. The company has initiated talks with regulators to pursue appropriate regulatory authorization, Erck indicated.
NVAX in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on May 09, 2023
NVAX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 09, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 43 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
NVAX moved below its 50-day moving average on June 01, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NVAX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 26, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVAX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 58 cases where NVAX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 02, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVAX as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVAX just turned positive on June 02, 2023. Looking at past instances where NVAX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVAX advanced for three days, in of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (49.505) is normal, around the industry mean (24.947). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (122.964). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.308). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.448) is also within normal values, averaging (307.036).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a company which engages in development of novel recombinant vaccines
Industry Biotechnology
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NVAX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVAX has been loosely correlated with CRSP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NVAX jumps, then CRSP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVAX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVAX | 100% | -1.30% | ||
| CRSP - NVAX | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.74% | ||
| BEAM - NVAX | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.68% | ||
| EDIT - NVAX | 51% Loosely correlated | +1.26% | ||
| OCGN - NVAX | 49% Loosely correlated | +4.58% | ||
| SANA - NVAX | 49% Loosely correlated | +5.41% | ||
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