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Sarah Patel's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 02, 2021

Novavax (NVAX, $240.29) posted wider-than-expected fiscal Q4 loss

Novavax  posted a fiscal fourth-quarter loss that’s wider than anticipated by analysts. However, the vaccine development company’s revenue came in higher than expected.

The net loss for the quarter widened to -$2.70 a share from -$1.13 in the year-earlier quarter. FactSet poll shows consensus estimates of a GAAP net loss of -$2.23 a share

Revenue rose $279.7 million from $8.8 million. That's higher than analysts' forecast  of $202.4 million. The increase in revenue can be attributed to the company's services under an agreement with CEPI, which raises money for and supports vaccine development, and services to the U.S. government's Operation Warp Speed vaccine-development program.

"With positive efficacy results, including against evolving variant strains, NVX-Cov2373 offers a highly unique profile, including the ability to ship and store the vaccine at traditional refrigerated temperatures," President and CEO Stanley Erck said in a statement.

These attributes, according to Erck , should support emergency-use authorization. The company has initiated talks  with regulators to pursue appropriate regulatory authorization, Erck indicated.

 

 

Related Ticker: NVAX

NVAX in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on May 09, 2023

NVAX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 09, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 43 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

NVAX moved below its 50-day moving average on June 01, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for NVAX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 26, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVAX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 58 cases where NVAX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 02, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NVAX as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NVAX just turned positive on June 02, 2023. Looking at past instances where NVAX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVAX advanced for three days, in of 274 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (49.505) is normal, around the industry mean (24.947). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (122.964). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.308). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.448) is also within normal values, averaging (307.036).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Incyte Corp (NASDAQ:INCY), Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), Exelixis (NASDAQ:EXEL), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARWR), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (NASDAQ:ADPT), Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), Sorrento Therapeutics (OTC:SRNEQ).

Industry description

Biotechnology involves genetic or protein engineering to produce medicines/therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion-dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development, as companies attempt to continually come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide opportunities for growth for a company in this industry. Discoveries, however, must pass the regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets. Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Celgene Corporation are examples of companies in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Biotechnology Industry is 2.11B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 365 to 353.84B. NONOF holds the highest valuation in this group at 353.84B. The lowest valued company is CLAZF at 365.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was 2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 40%, and the average quarterly price growth was 52%. EFTR experienced the highest price growth at 77%, while BLCM experienced the biggest fall at -61%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was -45%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -57% and the average quarterly volume growth was -71%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 85
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 93
Profit Risk Rating: 94
Seasonality Score: 7 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: BIOTECHNOLOGY SECTOR
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a company which engages in development of novel recombinant vaccines

Industry Biotechnology

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Biotechnology
Address
21 Firstfield Road
Phone
+1 240 268-2000
Employees
1992
Web
https://www.novavax.com
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NVAX and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVAX has been loosely correlated with CRSP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 52% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NVAX jumps, then CRSP could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To NVAX
1D Price
Change %
NVAX100%
-1.30%
CRSP - NVAX
52%
Loosely correlated
+0.74%
BEAM - NVAX
51%
Loosely correlated
+4.68%
EDIT - NVAX
51%
Loosely correlated
+1.26%
OCGN - NVAX
49%
Loosely correlated
+4.58%
SANA - NVAX
49%
Loosely correlated
+5.41%
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