Novavax shares surged more than 40% on Tuesday, following news that the biotech company has been selected to deliver up to 100 million doses of the company’s late-stage Covid-19 vaccine candidate as part of the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed program.
The company announced that it has received $1.6 billion from the federal government to complete late-stage development of its NVX‑CoV2373 Covid-19 vaccine candidate, and to begin large-scale manufacturing and delivery of the drug by next year.
The vaccine is currently in phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials in Australia. Preliminary results are expected at the end of this month.
According to Novavax, the $1.6 billion from Operation Warp Speed will help towards a more widespread phase 3 trial as well as support the company stockpile and build out a distribution network for the drug.
Tickeron's AI-powered scorecard rates NVAX a BUY.
NVAX's Aroon indicator reaches into Uptrend on July 06, 2020
For traders, this could mean going long on the ticker or exploring call options in the next month. In 121 of 136 cases where NVAX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.
Current price $79.44 is above $38.00 the highest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 06/03/20 - 07/06/20, the price experienced a +80% Uptrend. During the week of 06/26/20 - 07/06/20, the stock enjoyed a +3% Uptrend growth.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on June 16, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 68 of 87 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just turned positive. Considering data from situations where NVAX's MACD histogram became positive, in 31 of 40 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 32 of 38 cases where NVAX's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 84%.
The Stochastic Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 36 of 40 cases where NVAX's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 90%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 69%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 2.36 to 1.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVAX's P/B Ratio (-178.48) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.84). P/E Ratio (0.00) is within average values for comparable stocks, (64.20). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (4.87). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.08) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (33.41) is also within normal values, averaging (1250.22).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.