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Jul 07, 2020

Novavax (NVAX,$79.44) awarded $1.6 billion from govt., for late-stage Covid-19 vaccine candidate

Novavax  shares surged more than 40% on Tuesday, following news that the biotech company has been selected to deliver up to 100 million doses of the company’s late-stage Covid-19 vaccine candidate as part of the U.S. government’s Operation Warp Speed program.

The company announced that it has received  $1.6 billion from the federal government to complete late-stage development of its NVX‑CoV2373 Covid-19 vaccine candidate, and to begin large-scale manufacturing and delivery of the drug by next year.

The vaccine is currently in phase 1 and phase 2 clinical trials in Australia. Preliminary results are expected at the end of this month.

According to Novavax, the $1.6 billion from Operation Warp Speed will help towards a more widespread phase 3 trial as well as support the company stockpile and build out a distribution network for the drug.

Tickeron's AI-powered scorecard rates NVAX a BUY.

NVAX's Aroon indicator reaches into Uptrend on July 06, 2020

For traders, this could mean going long on the ticker or exploring call options in the next month. In 121 of 136 cases where NVAX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.

Current price $79.44 is above $38.00 the highest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 06/03/20 - 07/06/20, the price experienced a +80% Uptrend. During the week of 06/26/20 - 07/06/20, the stock enjoyed a +3% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on June 16, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 68 of 87 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 78%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just turned positive. Considering data from situations where NVAX's MACD histogram became positive, in 31 of 40 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 32 of 38 cases where NVAX's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 84%.

The Stochastic Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 36 of 40 cases where NVAX's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 90%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 69%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 2.36 to 1.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NVAX's P/B Ratio (-178.48) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.84). P/E Ratio (0.00) is within average values for comparable stocks, (64.20). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (4.87). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.08) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (33.41) is also within normal values, averaging (1250.22).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.

Related Ticker: NVAX

NVAX in -4.12% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on April 01, 2024

Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where NVAX declined for three days, in of 345 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for NVAX moved out of overbought territory on February 28, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 27 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 15, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVAX as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVAX turned negative on March 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

NVAX moved above its 50-day moving average on February 29, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for NVAX crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVAX advanced for three days, in of 262 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 124 cases where NVAX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (49.505) is normal, around the industry mean (26.650). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (127.030). NVAX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (2.202). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.029) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.842) is also within normal values, averaging (444.611).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Incyte Corp (NASDAQ:INCY), Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), Exelixis (NASDAQ:EXEL), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARWR), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX), Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (NASDAQ:ADPT), Inovio Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:INO).

Industry description

Biotechnology involves genetic or protein engineering to produce medicines/therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion-dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development, as companies attempt to continually come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide opportunities for growth for a company in this industry. Discoveries, however, must pass the regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets. Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Celgene Corporation are examples of companies in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Biotechnology Industry is 2.63B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 402 to 568.84B. NVO holds the highest valuation in this group at 568.84B. The lowest valued company is PNEXF at 402.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was 5%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 104%. QTTB experienced the highest price growth at 1,826%, while GMDA experienced the biggest fall at -89%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was 11%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -43% and the average quarterly volume growth was 38%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 87
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 94
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: -2 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: BIOTECHNOLOGY SECTOR
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a company which engages in development of novel recombinant vaccines

Industry Biotechnology

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Biotechnology
Address
700 Quince Orchard Road
Phone
+1 240 268-2000
Employees
1534
Web
https://www.novavax.com
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