ONEOK (OKE) Q2 2026 Earnings: Watching for Volume Momentum After +26% YTD Gains
Key Takeaways
- ONEOK (OKE) reports second-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Monday, August 3, with a conference call scheduled for August 4 at 11 a.m. Eastern.
- Consensus estimates point to earnings of approximately $1.39 per share on revenue of roughly $10.8 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year revenue increase of about 37%.
- The company enters this report having raised its full-year 2026 guidance in April to an EPS midpoint of $5.53 and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $8.25 billion, despite a Q1 EPS miss.
- Analyst sentiment remains divided, with a consensus "Hold" rating, seven Buy ratings, and eleven Hold ratings, while the stock has gained over 26% year-to-date.
- Key metrics under scrutiny include NGL (natural gas liquids) raw feed throughput, Permian and Bakken processing volumes, and fee-based earnings stability across the company's approximately 60,000-mile pipeline network.
Why This Earnings Report Matters
ONEOK's second-quarter report arrives at an important time for the midstream sector and the company's own story. After a Q1 2026 performance that delivered a 12% year-over-year increase in net income to $776 million and a 13% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $2.0 billion, management raised full-year guidance. Yet the stock's upward move has drawn downgrades from Morgan Stanley and Jefferies, both citing concerns about multiyear growth conviction. With shares trading near $90 and a dividend yield approaching 4.8%, investors are weighing whether volume-driven execution can overcome the cautious stance Wall Street has taken heading into the second half of the year.
Earnings Expectations
Analysts project ONEOK will post second-quarter earnings of roughly $1.39 per share, according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, with revenues expected to reach approximately $10.8 billion — a roughly 37% jump from the year-ago period. Other consensus panels place EPS estimates in a slightly higher $1.40 to $1.41 range on revenue closer to $8.95 billion. Earnings estimates for the quarter have trended modestly lower over the past 60 days, with a decline of approximately 3.5%.
Mizuho recently raised its Q2 adjusted EBITDA estimate for ONEOK to $2.05 billion, citing stronger Permian Basin processing volumes and Bakken activity that held up better than typical seasonal patterns would suggest. UBS similarly expects second-quarter EBITDA to climb to roughly $2.06 billion, with seasonal strength across most business units partially offset by softer natural gas pipeline results. Wells Fargo identified ONEOK as one of the names likely to exceed consensus this quarter, pointing to wide Katy-Waha marketing spreads during the period.
Investors will focus intently on volume metrics: NGL raw feed throughput, which surged 15% in Q1; refined products volumes shipped, which rose 12%; and natural gas volumes processed, up 5%. The company's 90% fee-based earnings model provides cash flow visibility, but growth hinges on sustained throughput momentum across its gathering, processing, fractionation, and transportation segments. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Sentiment heading into ONEOK's second-quarter print reflects a tug-of-war between strong operational momentum and persistent valuation skepticism. The stock has rallied more than 21% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500's roughly 9% gain, yet the analyst community remains broadly cautious. Of 23 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it a Buy or equivalent, 11 maintain a Hold, and one recent downgrade landed at Sell. The average 12-month price target sits near $92 to $96, implying modest upside of 3% to 6% from current levels.
Several recent downgrades have shaped the cautious tone. Morgan Stanley cut ONEOK to Equal Weight, acknowledging value but flagging weak investor conviction around multiyear EBITDA growth. Jefferies moved to Hold from Buy, citing fading confidence in a meaningful Bakken growth acceleration. On the bullish side, UBS maintains a Buy rating with a $108 target, pointing to AI-linked power demand, export terminal interest, and disciplined capital spending as underappreciated catalysts.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking beyond the second-quarter print, investors should monitor several interconnected themes that will shape ONEOK's trajectory through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
First, volume sustainability is paramount. The Q1 surge in NGL raw feed throughput, refined products shipments, and natural gas processing volumes set a high bar. If management confirms these trends held through the second quarter and provides upbeat commentary about ongoing demand, it would reinforce the thesis that ONEOK benefits from network-wide utilization rather than temporary tailwinds. Conversely, any softening in Bakken or Mid-Continent activity would validate the more cautious analyst stance.
Second, the natural gas liquids export story continues to gain attention. UBS highlighted ONEOK's planned Texas City export terminal and noted strong customer interest in capacity. Additionally, discussions with large technology companies about gas supply for AI-related power projects — including facilities with approximately 5 gigawatts of capacity — represent a longer-term demand catalyst that could reshape growth expectations beyond the current fiscal year.
Third, capital allocation discipline remains a differentiating factor. ONEOK kept 2026 capital expenditure guidance unchanged at $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion while raising earnings guidance, suggesting improved returns on existing assets rather than growth funded by aggressive spending. The relocation of a 150 million cubic feet per day processing plant to the Permian Basin from North Texas exemplifies this optimization mindset.
Finally, investors should watch the trajectory of Katy-Waha natural gas price differentials. These spreads provided a tailwind during the second quarter but have already begun narrowing as new takeaway capacity enters service, potentially reducing a source of earnings upside in the second half of the year. From what I see, this is important because it could affect near-term results even if longer-term demand holds up.
Using Tickeron AI Tools in My Research
When preparing for earnings like this one, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly filter comparable midstream names and review recent technical and fundamental signals. It helps me cross-check volume trends and peer performance in a structured way without spending hours on manual screens. This kind of tool has become a regular part of how I organize ideas ahead of reports.
Disclaimer
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Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
OKE in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on August 10, 2026
OKE moved above its 50-day moving average on August 10, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 34 of 49 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OKE as a result. In 63 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +1.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OKE advanced for three days, in 254 of 379 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 150 of 254 cases where OKE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for OKE moved out of overbought territory on August 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 53%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 33 of 61 cases where OKE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for OKE turned negative on September 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 21 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 46%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OKE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
OKE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 16 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.655) is normal, around the industry mean (185.987). P/E Ratio (16.687) is within average values for comparable stocks, (25.407). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.801) is also within normal values, averaging (3.876). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.051) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.550) is also within normal values, averaging (4.782).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. OKE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 39, placing this stock slightly worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a company which purchases, gathers, compresses, transports and stores natural gas
Industry OilGasPipelines
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