Republic Services (RSG): What to Expect from Q1 2026 Earnings
Key Takeaways
- Analysts expect Republic Services to report Q1 2026 EPS of $1.64, up 3.8% from $1.58 in Q1 2025.
- Consensus revenue estimate stands at $4.1 billion, reflecting 2.2% year-over-year growth.
- The company uses a calendar fiscal year, with Q1 covering January to March 2026.
- Full-year 2026 guidance includes revenue of $17.05-$17.15 billion and adjusted EPS of $7.20-$7.28.
- Investors will watch core pricing trends, volume changes, and updates to annual outlook.
- Republic Services has beaten EPS estimates in recent quarters, including Q4 2025 ($1.76 vs. $1.62 expected).
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
As we approach the Q1 2026 earnings report for Republic Services (RSG), a leading provider of non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services, I'm focused on how the company is navigating steady industry demand alongside softening volumes. The waste management sector continues to benefit from its essential services nature and strong pricing power, though economic slowdowns can weigh on commercial and residential volumes. In recent quarters, the company has maintained resilient adjusted EBITDA margins around 31-32%, supported by yield growth of 3-5% and strategic acquisitions. This report, set for after market close on May 7, 2026, will indicate whether core operations remain on track with the full-year guidance provided in February—especially considering the $100 million headwind from non-recurring 2025 hurricane cleanup revenue. For investors like myself, it provides critical insights into margin durability, free cash flow generation (guided at $2.52-$2.56 billion for 2026), and the company's approach to capital allocation through dividends and buybacks.
Earnings Expectations
Wall Street's consensus points to Q1 2026 EPS of $1.64, marking a 3.8% increase from the $1.58 reported in Q1 2025, with revenue expected at $4.1 billion, up 2.2% year-over-year. Estimates show some minor variation, such as one source projecting $1.67 EPS on $4.1105 billion in sales. These projections account for yield improvements offsetting modest volume declines, aligning with the company's guidance for 3.2-3.7% total revenue yield growth and a 1.0% volume drop in 2026.
From what I see, key metrics to watch include adjusted EBITDA (full-year guide: $5.475-$5.525 billion), performance in recycling and environmental solutions, and core pricing trends. Republic Services (RSG) has a strong track record of outperforming on EPS, as evidenced by Q4 2025 results of $1.76 versus the $1.62 consensus, even though revenue came in slightly light at $4.14 billion against $4.21 billion expected. Stock reactions have been mixed post-earnings; shares dipped nearly 2% after Q4 due to perceptions around guidance, yet long-term holders have seen over 50% three-year returns.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Heading into this Q1 report, sentiment around Republic Services (RSG) feels cautiously optimistic, supported by consistent EPS beats and solid free cash flow. Analysts hold a consensus "Buy" rating, with price targets averaging $238-$245—suggesting about 20% upside from levels near $200. That said, risks persist from volume softness tied to economic headwinds and possible guidance adjustments as non-recurring revenue normalizes. Historical reactions highlight some volatility: shares fell 2% after Q4 despite the EPS beat, driven by close scrutiny of guidance. Implied volatility points to an expected 3-4% move following the report.
Why I Rely on Tickeron’s AI Screener
In my analysis of stocks like RSG, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener, an AI-powered tool for discovering stocks and ETFs. It lets me filter thousands of assets using customizable criteria like technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals—such as industry peers, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. This helps pinpoint trade ideas, trending stocks, breakouts, and opportunities far more efficiently than manual methods. I’ve found it invaluable for contextualizing a stock’s position in its sector, and it’s become a staple in my research process.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
One thing that stands out after Q1 results will be any updates to the full-year 2026 guidance: revenue of $17.05-$17.15 billion (3% growth at the midpoint), adjusted EPS of $7.20-$7.28, and adjusted free cash flow of $2.52-$2.56 billion. These targets assume 3.2-3.7% yield growth to offset a 1% volume decline, with related business yields at 4-4.5%.
I'm watching acquisition activity closely (around $1 billion planned), municipal contract wins, and stabilization in environmental solutions demand. Margin pressures from labor, fuel—key cost components—and landfill expenses deserve attention, as do renewable natural gas (RNG) initiatives for longer-term growth.
Broader industry factors, including recycling commodity prices and regulatory shifts, could also shape the outlook. Upcoming catalysts include Q2 earnings in late July, dividend decisions (recently increased to $0.625 quarterly), and share repurchases under the $3 billion program through 2026. In my view, these elements will help determine if Republic Services (RSG) sustains its trajectory.
Disclaimer
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RSG in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on June 16, 2026
The 10-day moving average for RSG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RSG as a result. In of 74 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RSG just turned positive on June 23, 2026. Looking at past instances where RSG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
RSG moved above its 50-day moving average on June 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RSG advanced for three days, in of 366 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RSG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
RSG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.249) is normal, around the industry mean (3.084). P/E Ratio (29.320) is within average values for comparable stocks, (102.017). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.961) is also within normal values, averaging (2.092). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.810) is also within normal values, averaging (23.242).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RSG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a provider of solid waste collection and disposal & recycling services
Industry EnvironmentalServices
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