SAP (SAP, $126.70) posts Q4 earnings
SAP posted fourth-quarter 2020 non-IFRS earnings, which fell -7% year-over-year to €1.69 per share ($2.02). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings was $2.00.
The software company’s revenues fell -6% from the year-ago quarter to €7.541 billion ($8.993 billion), (down 2% constant currency or cc). The Zacks Consensus Estimate was $9.09 billion.
Cloud revenues rose +7% year-over-year to €2.04 billion on a non-IFRS basis (up +13% at cc).
Software licenses revenues of €4.54 billion fell -8% year-over-year (down 4% at cc) year over year.
Cloud revenues related to Software as a Service (SaaS)/Platform as a Service (PaaS) increased +13% at cc to €1.937 billion. Cloud revenues related to Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) climbed +17% year over year at cc to €224 million.
The company’s services business (accounting for 12.7% of total revenues) generated revenue of €960 million, down -20% year-over-year (down -16% at cc).
Looking ahead, SAP expects to benefit from “expedited shift to the cloud” in 2021. The company believes that the COVID-19 crisis impacts will start to decrease due to vaccine roll outs, and that will lead to "gradual improvement” in demand environment in the second half of 2021.
The company predicts cloud revenues to range between €9.1 billion to €9.5 billion on a non-IFRS basis, (+13%-+18% at cc.). It projects non-IFRS cloud and software revenues in the range of €23.3 billion to €23.8 billion (flat to up 2% at cc). Non-IFRS operating profit at cc is forecast in the range of €7.8 billion to €8.2 billion (down 1% to 6% at cc.).
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
SAP's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for SAP entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 175 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 110 of the 175 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 63%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SAP moved out of overbought territory on September 01, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 44%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SAP as a result. In 51 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SAP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 55 cases where SAP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The 50-day moving average for SAP moved above the 200-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +5.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAP advanced for three days, in 179 of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.746) is normal, around the industry mean (51.693). P/E Ratio (27.540) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.610) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.653) is also within normal values, averaging (70.184).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SAP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SAP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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a provider of e-business software solutions
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