SAP (SAP, $152.27) preliminary results beat expectations
SAP's preliminary report revealed Q2 results that were higher than analysts’ expectations.
In the preliminary report (that comes ahead of a full Q2 report due on July 27), SAP states that the software company’s Q2 revenue rose +2% annually on a non-IFRS basis to €6.74 billion($7.62 billion). That is above FactSet consensus estimate of €6.69 billion ($7.56 billion)
However, the figure is slower than Q1’s 7% growth.
On the other hand, SAP’s competitor Oracle experienced a -6% drop in revenue during its May quarter, and provided guidance (during its June 16 earnings call) for August quarter revenue growth in the range of -1% to up +1%, with a 1% currency headwind.
[ORCL & SAP] are closely correlated.
Both companies represent the Packaged Software industry
Market capitalization -- SAP: $175.4B vs. ORCL: $173.9B
Current volume relative to the 65-day Moving Average: SAP: 56% vs. ORCL: 94%
Long term analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
SAP’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while ORCL’s FA Score has 2’s green FA rating(s).
- SAP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ORCL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators.
SAP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA rating(s) are bullish while ORCL’s TA Score has 6’s bullish TA rating(s).
- SAP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ORCL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 1 bearish.
SAP vs ORCL: Fundamental Ratings:
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ORCL's Valuation (8) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as SAP (10). This means that ORCL’s stock grew similarly to SAP’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ORCL (44). This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to ORCL’s over the last 12 months.
ORCL's SMR Rating (9) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as SAP (32). This means that ORCL’s stock grew similarly to SAP’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ORCL (47). This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to ORCL’s over the last 12 months.
SAP's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ORCL (55). This means that SAP’s stock grew similarly to ORCL’s over the last 12 months.
SAP ($175B) and ORCL ($174B) have the same market capitalization. SAP has higher P/E ratio than ORCL: 11.276 vs 7.932. SAP YTD gains are higher at: 11.276 vs. ORCL (7.932). ORCL has higher annual earnings (EBITDA): 17.2B vs. SAP (8.911B). ORCL has more cash in the bank: 37.2B vs. SAP (8.576B). SAP has less debt than ORCL: 19.4B vs 73.7B. ORCL has higher revenues than SAP: 39.1B vs 31.1B.
SAP sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On March 18, 2025, the Stochastic Oscillator for SAP moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 52 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where SAP's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SAP advanced for three days, in of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SAP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 26, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SAP as a result. In of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SAP turned negative on February 20, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
SAP moved below its 50-day moving average on March 10, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SAP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 14, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SAP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for SAP entered a downward trend on March 19, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.909) is normal, around the industry mean (30.832). P/E Ratio (58.937) is within average values for comparable stocks, (162.423). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.964) is also within normal values, averaging (2.727). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.863) is also within normal values, averaging (59.121).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SAP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a provider of e-business software solutions
Industry PackagedSoftware