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Sep 30, 2020

Shopify (SHOP, $1,020.00) gets rating upgrade at Wedbush, on e-commerce market share potential

Shopify  shares got a rating boost from Wedbush analyst, who cited the company’s potential to  capture a share of the e-commerce market in the short term and over time.

Analyst Ygal Arounian upgraded the e-commerce software-and-services provider’s shares to outperform from neutral. The analysts also raised his price target to $1,300 from $998.

"We continue to see strength in Shopify’s near-term ability to capture share in e-commerce," said analyst Arounian. According to the analyst, “pull-forward in e-commerce trends” would be sustainable over time, driven in large part by ongoing changes to consumer habits.

According to the analyst, the coronavirus pandemic has increased the importance of fulfillment for small to midsized businesses and direct-to-consumer companies - which boosts the relevance of the Shopify Fulfillment Network, which the company launched last year. The analyst expects continued upside to estimates, even before the Shopify Fulfillment Network and Point of Sale contribute in material ways.

“While Shopify has targeted $1 billion in SFN costs through 2023E, this reflects an expected cash-neutral rollout that would also come alongside the expected $1 billion in revenue through 2023E," Arounian said.

The analyst feels  all this as just the “first steps in a much larger opportunity” that could augment Shopify’s position in business-to-business e-commerce as well over time.

Tickeron's analysis shows: 

SHOP is in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 29, 2020

SHOP moved above its 50-day Moving Average on September 29, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 32 of 34 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Current price $1021.83 crossed the resistance line at $1024.71 and is trading between $1024.71 resistance and $1021.62 support lines. Throughout the month of 08/27/20 - 09/29/20, the price experienced a -3% Downtrend, while the week of 09/22/20 - 09/29/20 shows a +7% Uptrend.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 25, 2020. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SHOP as a result. In 60 of 67 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHOP just turned positive on September 25, 2020. Looking at past instances where SHOP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.

Following a +6.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in 332 of 382 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 87%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 378 of 439 cases where SHOP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 86%

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The 10-day Moving Average for SHOP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.

SHOP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 29, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 81%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.29.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SHOP's P/B Ratio (26.61) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.21). P/E Ratio (0.00) is within average values for comparable stocks, (35.66). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (1.67). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.08) among similar stocks. SHOP's P/S Ratio (56.01) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.60).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

 

 

 

Related Ticker: SHOP

SHOP in downward trend: 10-day moving average crossed below 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024

The 10-day moving average for SHOP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for SHOP moved out of overbought territory on February 12, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 16, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SHOP as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SHOP turned negative on February 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

SHOP moved below its 50-day moving average on February 20, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHOP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

SHOP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 07, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 317 cases where SHOP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (10.870) is normal, around the industry mean (28.876). SHOP has a moderately high P/E Ratio (765.900) as compared to the industry average of (145.122). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.089) is also within normal values, averaging (2.869). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.088) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.045) is also within normal values, averaging (74.861).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.36B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.09T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.09T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 0%. MTC experienced the highest price growth at 142%, while IFBD experienced the biggest fall at -97%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 38%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 55% and the average quarterly volume growth was 84%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 75
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 88
Seasonality Score: 2 (-100 ... +100)
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SHOPDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

an operator of eCommerce website that allows customers to sell online by providing software to create an online store

Industry PackagedSoftware

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Information Technology Services
Address
151 O'Connor Street
Phone
+1 613 241-2828
Employees
8300
Web
https://www.shopify.com
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SHOP and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SHOP has been closely correlated with COIN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 67% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if SHOP jumps, then COIN could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To SHOP
1D Price
Change %
SHOP100%
+0.29%
COIN - SHOP
67%
Closely correlated
+1.09%
CLSK - SHOP
64%
Loosely correlated
+6.76%
RIOT - SHOP
62%
Loosely correlated
+2.25%
IDCC - SHOP
59%
Loosely correlated
+0.26%
FROG - SHOP
56%
Loosely correlated
+0.45%
More
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