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published in Blogs
Jul 29, 2020

Shopify (SHOP, $1,071.04) Q2 earnings beats expectations

Shopify Inc.  reported second quarter earnings that beat expectations. 

The e-commerce company’s  earnings for the three months ending in June came in at 29 cents per share per share, surpassing the Street consensus forecast of 1 penny per share. That compares to a loss of 26 cents per share over the same period last year.

Total revenues surged +97% year-over-year to $714.3 million, while gross merchandise volumes more than doubled to $30.1 billion.

Monthly recurring revenues was $57 million as of June 30, a 21% increase year-over-year.

According to Tickeron, SHOP enters an Uptrend as Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on July 27, 2020

This indicator signals that SHOP's price has momentum to move higher, since its current price moved above its price 14 days ago. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 61 of 67 cases where SHOP's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.

Current price $1071.04 is above $764.95 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 06/25/20 - 07/28/20, the price experienced a +7% Uptrend. During the week of 07/21/20 - 07/28/20, the stock enjoyed a +3% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Indicator suggests the ticker price trend may be in a reversal from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. 39 of 44 cases where SHOP's Stochastic Indicator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in 330 of 380 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 87%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 379 of 428 similar cases where SHOP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 89%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator appears to be shifting from an Uptrend to a Downtrend. In 43 of 66 cases where SHOP's RSI indicator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 65%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) crossed below the signal line. In 37 of 51 cases where SHOP's MACD histogram became negative, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 73%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 38 of 63 cases where SHOP's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 60%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 72%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 2.1 to 1.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 100 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: SHOP's P/B Ratio (54.98) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (6.43). P/E Ratio (0.00) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.87). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (1.63). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.09) among similar stocks. SHOP's P/S Ratio (28.19) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.58).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Related Ticker: SHOP

SHOP's RSI Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 3 days

The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

SHOP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 03, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SHOP as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SHOP turned negative on April 03, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

SHOP moved below its 50-day moving average on March 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHOP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.099) is normal, around the industry mean (29.993). P/E Ratio (781.900) is within average values for comparable stocks, (155.253). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.291) is also within normal values, averaging (2.725). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.081) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (14.347) is also within normal values, averaging (55.114).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.05B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.15T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.15T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -1%, and the average quarterly price growth was 12%. GRRR experienced the highest price growth at 535%, while YQAI experienced the biggest fall at -91%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -7%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -65% and the average quarterly volume growth was 51%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 75
Price Growth Rating: 79
SMR Rating: 84
Profit Risk Rating: 89
Seasonality Score: -14 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: E-COMMERCE SECTOR
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
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General Information

an operator of eCommerce website that allows customers to sell online by providing software to create an online store

Industry PackagedSoftware

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Information Technology Services
Address
151 O'Connor Street
Phone
+1 613 241-2828
Employees
8300
Web
https://www.shopify.com
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