Shopify (SHOP, $187.77) clocks record Q4 growth
Shopify Inc, the virtual go-to destination for e-commerce entrepreneurs, has published impressive Q4 results that indicate a long runway of growth ahead. In Q4, revenue grew to $343.9 billion, a 54% y-o-y increase, and adjusted EPS rose to $0.26, a 73% y-o-y increase. Its gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased 54% to $14 billion. Overall, the company’s stock has appreciated over 800% in the last three years.
But do these figures tell the whole story.
Shopify is not just about pushing products; it’s about empowering merchants. The company helps merchants across the size spectrum to set up virtual shops quickly and affordably with the help of select tools that make it easier for clients to process payments, ship packages, secure financing, and reduce fraudulent transactions. This merchant solutions segment has alone accounted for a revenue growth of $210.3 million in Q4, a 63% increase over last year’s Q4.
Further, once the shops have been set up, the platform soon becomes indispensible for the merchants who don’t find it beneficial to leave it for another competitor. The listing and shipping of products, acceptance of payments, and the financing of future growth – the entire gamut of the shopping segments makes it impossible for the merchants to dump it altogether.
Other two important Shopify segments include Shopify Shipping, launched in 2015 that allows merchants to select from a variety of shipping partners to buy and print outbound and return shipping labels and track orders directly within the Shopify platform. Almost 40% of eligible merchants used the platform in Q4, up from 30% of U.S. and 20% of Canadian merchants in 2017's final quarter.
The next one is Shopify Payments, which enables merchants to accept card and digital payments across its online and offline commerce platforms. In Q4, $5.8 billion was processed on Shopify Payments, a 65% y-o-y increase, and about 41% of the company's GMV.
All these beneficial factors coupled with its sticky ecosystem and features, is likely to help Shopify keep the merchants on its platform for years to come.
SHOP in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for SHOP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SHOP as a result. In 74 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHOP just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where SHOP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 44 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.
SHOP moved above its 50-day moving average on September 21, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 50-day moving average for SHOP moved above the 200-day moving average on August 31, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +8.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in 259 of 317 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
SHOP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHOP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for SHOP entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (14.599) is normal, around the industry mean (51.693). P/E Ratio (97.304) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.734) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.755) is also within normal values, averaging (70.184).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SHOP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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an operator of eCommerce website that allows customers to sell online by providing software to create an online store
Industry PackagedSoftware
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