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Oct 29, 2020
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Shopify (SHOP, $988.24) beats Q3 earnings expectations

Shopify (SHOP, $988.24) beats Q3 earnings expectations

Shopify   reported third-quarter earnings and sales that beat analysts' expectations.

The e-commerce tech company’s adjusted earnings for the third quarter came in at $1.13 a share (vs. a loss of - 29 cents a share a year ago). Analysts polled by FactSet had expected 52 cents a share earnings.

Revenue surged +96% year-over-year to $767.4 million in the quarter, exceeding analysts' forecasts of $657.8 million. 

The company’s subscription solutions revenue increased +48% to $245.3 million, on the back of more merchants entering the platform. Merchant solutions revenue climbed +132% to $522.1 million. Monthly recurring revenue from ongoing customer service subscriptions was $74.4 million as of Sept. 30.

Related Ticker: SHOP

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


Momentum Indicator for SHOP turns negative, indicating new downward trend

SHOP saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 23, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 90 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 74 of the 90 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 82%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for SHOP moved out of overbought territory on October 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 34 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 81%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SHOP turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 42 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 81%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHOP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The 10-day moving average for SHOP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.

Following a +1.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHOP advanced for three days, in 253 of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.

SHOP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 183 of 210 cases where SHOP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 87%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHOP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 46 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SHOP’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (15.847) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.884). P/E Ratio (104.846) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.540). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.734) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (12.755) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), ServiceNow Inc. (NYSE:NOW), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG), Autodesk (NASDAQ:ADSK), Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY), Atlassian Corp (NASDAQ:TEAM).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.51B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 39 to 269.65B. SAP holds the highest valuation in this group at 269.65B. The lowest valued company is STIXF at 39.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -4%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3%. AEYE experienced the highest price growth at 80%, while RCT experienced the biggest fall at -58%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -42%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -4% and the average quarterly volume growth was -47%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 51
P/E Growth Rating: 58
Price Growth Rating: 59
SMR Rating: 77
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: 10 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: E-COMMERCE SECTOR
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General Information

an operator of eCommerce website that allows customers to sell online by providing software to create an online store

Industry PackagedSoftware

Industry
Information Technology Services
Address
151 O'Connor Street
Phone
+1 613 241-2828
Employees
7600
Web
https://www.shopify.com
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