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Jul 04, 2023

Swing Trade NVAX: Medium Volatility Stock with 11.88% Returns

Swing Trader: Medium Volatility Stocks for Active Trading (TA&FA) Generates 11.88% for NVAX

The stock market offers a myriad of investment opportunities, but few are as exciting or potentially rewarding as active trading. As a case in point, Novavax Inc. (NVAX), a biotechnology company, has recently demonstrated an impressive return of 11.88% within the active trading segment, capitalizing on medium volatility.

On June 30, 2023, an intriguing development transpired in NVAX's technical analysis - the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Histogram crossed above the signal line. The MACD is a momentum oscillator that can be instrumental in identifying potential buy and sell signals. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is generally perceived as a bullish signal that suggests the potential for further stock price appreciation.

To understand the significance of this event, it is essential to analyze historical instances where NVAX's MACD line crossed the signal line. In 42 out of 43 instances, NVAX shares have continued to rise in the month following the positive MACD cross. This remarkably consistent pattern suggests a 90% probability of the stock's upward trend continuing.

By capitalizing on the medium volatility of NVAX's stock, Swing Trader, an active trading strategy focusing on Technical Analysis & Fundamental Analysis (TA&FA), has generated a commendable 11.88% return. This return is noteworthy and indicates that an active trading strategy combined with reliable technical indicators like the MACD can yield profitable outcomes.

NVAX is a potent example of how medium-volatility stocks can offer lucrative opportunities for active traders. With the MACD histogram crossing above the signal line and a historical pattern pointing to an upward trajectory, NVAX has presented an attractive trading opportunity with a demonstrated return of 11.88%. The Swing Trader strategy, focusing on TA&FA, has taken advantage of this medium-volatility stock to generate impressive gains, signifying the potential advantages of active trading strategies.

Related Ticker: NVAX

NVAX's Stochastic Oscillator is remaining in oversold zone for 8 days

The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NVAX advanced for three days, in of 276 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 130 cases where NVAX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 11, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NVAX as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NVAX turned negative on September 12, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

NVAX moved below its 50-day moving average on September 11, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for NVAX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 20, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NVAX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

NVAX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 06, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NVAX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (49.505) is normal, around the industry mean (22.634). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (131.508). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.085). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.034) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.372) is also within normal values, averaging (305.056).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NVAX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 96, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:REGN), Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), Incyte Corp (NASDAQ:INCY), Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SRPT), Exelixis (NASDAQ:EXEL), Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ARWR), BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:BCRX), Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (NASDAQ:ADPT), Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), Sorrento Therapeutics (OTC:SRNEQ).

Industry description

Biotechnology involves genetic or protein engineering to produce medicines/therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion-dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development, as companies attempt to continually come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide opportunities for growth for a company in this industry. Discoveries, however, must pass the regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets. Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Celgene Corporation are examples of companies in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Biotechnology Industry is 2.18B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 402 to 410.21B. NVO holds the highest valuation in this group at 410.21B. The lowest valued company is PNEXF at 402.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was -4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 22%, and the average quarterly price growth was 34%. RNAZ experienced the highest price growth at 335%, while SEEL experienced the biggest fall at -81%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Biotechnology Industry was -27%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 80% and the average quarterly volume growth was 85%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 87
Price Growth Rating: 69
SMR Rating: 93
Profit Risk Rating: 95
Seasonality Score: -26 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a company which engages in development of novel recombinant vaccines

Industry Biotechnology

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Biotechnology
Address
21 Firstfield Road
Phone
+1 240 268-2000
Employees
1992
Web
https://www.novavax.com
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NVAX and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVAX has been loosely correlated with CRSP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NVAX jumps, then CRSP could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To NVAX
1D Price
Change %
NVAX100%
+2.52%
CRSP - NVAX
49%
Loosely correlated
+0.81%
BEAM - NVAX
46%
Loosely correlated
-3.16%
VERV - NVAX
43%
Loosely correlated
-5.54%
SANA - NVAX
41%
Loosely correlated
+2.61%
INO - NVAX
39%
Loosely correlated
-4.77%
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