Three Falling Peaks Pattern on Autodesk Could Be a Bad Sign
Software firm Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) saw a pattern form in the last few days that could be a bad sign for the stock. The stock hit a temporary high on Friday and has since turned lower. That is the third lower high the stock has hit since October and that has formed a Three Falling Peaks pattern.
We see the high from October, another high in December, and now the third one from last Friday. You could also draw a trendline that connects the three closing highs, ignoring the intraday high on December 3.
We also see that the overbought/oversold indicators hit overbought levels with the recent rally and they have now turned lower with the stochastic readings making a bearish crossover.
Tickeron’s AI Trend Predictor made a bearish prediction on Autodesk two days ago and the previous predictions on ADSK have been accurate 74% of the time since 2005. The model predicts that there is an 88% probability of a decline of at least 4% in the coming month for Autodesk.
Looking at the fundamentals for Autodesk we get quite a mixed picture. Earnings growth has been flat for the last three years while sales have declined at a rate of 4% per year during that same period. The most recent quarterly report was quite different though and it showed earnings grew by 342% over the same quarter a year earlier. Sales were up by 28% during that period as well.
Another concern is that Autodesk has poor management efficiency measures. The company doesn’t have a return on equity because it lost money in fiscal 2017 and the profit margin is -7%.
Autodesk hasn’t set the reporting date for fourth quarter results yet, but the Wall Street Journal has them due out on February 28.
ADSK in -8.75% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on July 11, 2025
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where ADSK declined for three days, in of 296 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 10, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ADSK as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ADSK turned negative on July 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
ADSK moved below its 50-day moving average on July 10, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ADSK's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 50-day moving average for ADSK moved above the 200-day moving average on June 23, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ADSK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 238 cases where ADSK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (29.940) is normal, around the industry mean (31.631). P/E Ratio (61.919) is within average values for comparable stocks, (164.477). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.557) is also within normal values, averaging (2.732). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.194) is also within normal values, averaging (62.243).
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a developer of multimedia software products
Industry PackagedSoftware
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