Three Falling Peaks Pattern on Autodesk Could Be a Bad Sign
Software firm Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) saw a pattern form in the last few days that could be a bad sign for the stock. The stock hit a temporary high on Friday and has since turned lower. That is the third lower high the stock has hit since October and that has formed a Three Falling Peaks pattern.
We see the high from October, another high in December, and now the third one from last Friday. You could also draw a trendline that connects the three closing highs, ignoring the intraday high on December 3.
We also see that the overbought/oversold indicators hit overbought levels with the recent rally and they have now turned lower with the stochastic readings making a bearish crossover.
Tickeron’s AI Trend Predictor made a bearish prediction on Autodesk two days ago and the previous predictions on ADSK have been accurate 74% of the time since 2005. The model predicts that there is an 88% probability of a decline of at least 4% in the coming month for Autodesk.
Looking at the fundamentals for Autodesk we get quite a mixed picture. Earnings growth has been flat for the last three years while sales have declined at a rate of 4% per year during that same period. The most recent quarterly report was quite different though and it showed earnings grew by 342% over the same quarter a year earlier. Sales were up by 28% during that period as well.
Another concern is that Autodesk has poor management efficiency measures. The company doesn’t have a return on equity because it lost money in fiscal 2017 and the profit margin is -7%.
Autodesk hasn’t set the reporting date for fourth quarter results yet, but the Wall Street Journal has them due out on February 28.
ADSK's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ADSK moved out of oversold territory on June 26, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 32 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADSK as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK just turned positive on July 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
ADSK moved below its 50-day moving average on June 02, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADSK entered a downward trend on July 01, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.643) is normal, around the industry mean (30.162). P/E Ratio (30.079) is within average values for comparable stocks, (77.418). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.790) is also within normal values, averaging (1.503). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.049) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.872) is also within normal values, averaging (52.363).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 95, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a developer of multimedia software products
Industry PackagedSoftware
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