Three Falling Peaks Pattern on Autodesk Could Be a Bad Sign
Software firm Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) saw a pattern form in the last few days that could be a bad sign for the stock. The stock hit a temporary high on Friday and has since turned lower. That is the third lower high the stock has hit since October and that has formed a Three Falling Peaks pattern.
We see the high from October, another high in December, and now the third one from last Friday. You could also draw a trendline that connects the three closing highs, ignoring the intraday high on December 3.
We also see that the overbought/oversold indicators hit overbought levels with the recent rally and they have now turned lower with the stochastic readings making a bearish crossover.
Tickeron’s AI Trend Predictor made a bearish prediction on Autodesk two days ago and the previous predictions on ADSK have been accurate 74% of the time since 2005. The model predicts that there is an 88% probability of a decline of at least 4% in the coming month for Autodesk.
Looking at the fundamentals for Autodesk we get quite a mixed picture. Earnings growth has been flat for the last three years while sales have declined at a rate of 4% per year during that same period. The most recent quarterly report was quite different though and it showed earnings grew by 342% over the same quarter a year earlier. Sales were up by 28% during that period as well.
Another concern is that Autodesk has poor management efficiency measures. The company doesn’t have a return on equity because it lost money in fiscal 2017 and the profit margin is -7%.
Autodesk hasn’t set the reporting date for fourth quarter results yet, but the Wall Street Journal has them due out on February 28.
ADSK sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for ADSK moved above the 200-day moving average on June 23, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 23, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ADSK as a result. In of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK just turned positive on June 27, 2025. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 217 cases where ADSK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 03, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (29.940) is normal, around the industry mean (31.479). P/E Ratio (61.919) is within average values for comparable stocks, (164.144). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.557) is also within normal values, averaging (2.732). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (10.194) is also within normal values, averaging (62.041).
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General Information
a developer of multimedia software products
Industry PackagedSoftware
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