GET DAILY SIGNALSThree Falling Peaks Pattern on Autodesk Could Be a Bad Sign
Software firm Autodesk (Nasdaq: ADSK) saw a pattern form in the last few days that could be a bad sign for the stock. The stock hit a temporary high on Friday and has since turned lower. That is the third lower high the stock has hit since October and that has formed a Three Falling Peaks pattern.
We see the high from October, another high in December, and now the third one from last Friday. You could also draw a trendline that connects the three closing highs, ignoring the intraday high on December 3.
We also see that the overbought/oversold indicators hit overbought levels with the recent rally and they have now turned lower with the stochastic readings making a bearish crossover.
Tickeron’s AI Trend Predictor made a bearish prediction on Autodesk two days ago and the previous predictions on ADSK have been accurate 74% of the time since 2005. The model predicts that there is an 88% probability of a decline of at least 4% in the coming month for Autodesk.
Looking at the fundamentals for Autodesk we get quite a mixed picture. Earnings growth has been flat for the last three years while sales have declined at a rate of 4% per year during that same period. The most recent quarterly report was quite different though and it showed earnings grew by 342% over the same quarter a year earlier. Sales were up by 28% during that period as well.
Another concern is that Autodesk has poor management efficiency measures. The company doesn’t have a return on equity because it lost money in fiscal 2017 and the profit margin is -7%.
Autodesk hasn’t set the reporting date for fourth quarter results yet, but the Wall Street Journal has them due out on February 28.
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Momentum Indicator for ADSK turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ADSK saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 84 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 60 of the 84 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
ADSK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +6.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in 207 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 198 cases where ADSK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ADSK moved out of overbought territory on October 23, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 69%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 42 of 56 cases where ADSK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 84 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (15.934) is normal, around the industry mean (-1.884). P/E Ratio (33.193) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.540). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.797) is also within normal values, averaging (2.824). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.072) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.024) is also within normal values, averaging (70.854).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
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a developer of multimedia software products
Industry PackagedSoftware
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