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published in Blogs
Dec 10, 2019

Toll Brothers(TOL, $40.00) beats fiscal Q4 earnings and revenue

Toll Brothers reported fiscal-fourth-quarter earnings and revenue that surpassed analysts' expectations.

For the quarter ended Oct. 31, the luxury-home builder company’s earnings  came in at $1.41 a share, compared to the $1.29 expected by analysts polled by FactSet. The EPS was, however, down -32% from the year-ago quarter. 

Revenue fell -3.1% year-over-year to $2.38 billion, but exceeded analysts’ estimate of $2.19 billion.

Contracts were up +18% in units and 12% in dollars, for the fourth quarter.

Chairman and Chief Executive Douglas Yearley Jr. emphasized that October housing starts were the strongest since July 2007, while the supply of homes on the market "remains constrained."   He also hinted at tailwinds from healthy consumer confidence and interest rates, and low unemployment rate.

For the first fiscal quarter, Toll Brothers projects deliveries of 1,650 to 1,850 homes, with an average price in the range of $800,000 to $820,000.

Related Ticker: TOL

TOL's MACD Histogram just turned positive

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL turned positive on February 12, 2024. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 14, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In of 99 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 76 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for TOL entered a downward trend on February 02, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 53, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.599) is normal, around the industry mean (6.122). P/E Ratio (8.338) is within average values for comparable stocks, (88.422). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.968) is also within normal values, averaging (1.395). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.008) as compared to the industry average of (0.043). P/S Ratio (1.160) is also within normal values, averaging (75.129).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are DR Horton (NYSE:DHI), Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN), Pultegroup (NYSE:PHM), KB Home (NYSE:KBH).

Industry description

Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Homebuilding Industry is 6.4B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 66.68K to 47.78B. DHI holds the highest valuation in this group at 47.78B. The lowest valued company is ASCK at 66.68K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -1%, and the average quarterly price growth was 16%. TWODF experienced the highest price growth at 7%, while DREM experienced the biggest fall at -12%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Homebuilding Industry was 13%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -17% and the average quarterly volume growth was -21%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 38
P/E Growth Rating: 32
Price Growth Rating: 46
SMR Rating: 54
Profit Risk Rating: 52
Seasonality Score: -44 (-100 ... +100)
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TOLDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a designer of single family homes

Industry Homebuilding

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Homebuilding
Address
1140 Virginia Drive
Phone
+1 215 938-8000
Employees
4800
Web
https://www.tollbrothers.com
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TOL and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To TOL
1D Price
Change %
TOL100%
+3.95%
PHM - TOL
89%
Closely correlated
+0.56%
LEN - TOL
88%
Closely correlated
+0.66%
KBH - TOL
87%
Closely correlated
+0.53%
TMHC - TOL
87%
Closely correlated
+2.45%
CCS - TOL
85%
Closely correlated
+1.79%
More
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