Toll Brothers (TOL, $45.84) beats Q4 earnings expectations
Toll Brothers Inc. posted its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations. Demand, however, may still facing headwinds due to rising interest rates.
The homebuilder’s earnings came in at $5.63 per share, handily topping the $4.01 per share expected by analysts polled by FactSet. The figure is also higher than the year-ago quarter’s $3.02 per share.
Revenue increased to $3.71 billion in the quarter from $3.04 billion a year ago, and surpassed analysts’ expectations of $3.17 billion. Home sales revenue increased +21% y/y to $3.6 billion. The company delivered 3,765 units in the quarter, higher than 3,341 units delivered a year ago. Net signed contracts, however, were down -60% in volume and -56% in value in the fourth quarter, in a rising interest rate environment.
Aroon Indicator for TOL shows an upward move is likely
TOL's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on June 02, 2023. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 269 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 269 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 24, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In of 102 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on May 25, 2023. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 58 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 02, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.215) is normal, around the industry mean (6.721). P/E Ratio (5.764) is within average values for comparable stocks, (120.694). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.044) is also within normal values, averaging (2.289). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.011) as compared to the industry average of (0.049). P/S Ratio (0.773) is also within normal values, averaging (71.792).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding
TOL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TOL has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TOL jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
