Toll Brothers (TOL, $45.84) beats Q4 earnings expectations
Toll Brothers Inc. posted its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings that exceeded analysts’ expectations. Demand, however, may still facing headwinds due to rising interest rates.
The homebuilder’s earnings came in at $5.63 per share, handily topping the $4.01 per share expected by analysts polled by FactSet. The figure is also higher than the year-ago quarter’s $3.02 per share.
Revenue increased to $3.71 billion in the quarter from $3.04 billion a year ago, and surpassed analysts’ expectations of $3.17 billion. Home sales revenue increased +21% y/y to $3.6 billion. The company delivered 3,765 units in the quarter, higher than 3,341 units delivered a year ago. Net signed contracts, however, were down -60% in volume and -56% in value in the fourth quarter, in a rising interest rate environment.
TOL's Stochastic Oscillator entering oversold zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for TOL moved into oversold territory on October 23, 2024. Be on the watch for the price uptrend or consolidation in the future. At that time, consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 327 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 361 cases where TOL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TOL as a result. In of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TOL turned negative on October 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 55 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 18, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 53, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.900) is normal, around the industry mean (7.196). P/E Ratio (9.918) is within average values for comparable stocks, (103.177). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.006) is also within normal values, averaging (1.437). TOL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.007) as compared to the industry average of (0.044). P/S Ratio (1.380) is also within normal values, averaging (88.859).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding