Toll Brothers (TOL) Declines on Waning Demand
Shares of the U.S. luxury home builder, Toll Brothers, slipped more that 5% on Tuesday after the company reported its first fall in quarterly orders in more than four years.
Corroborating the weak state of the U.S. housing market, the Q4 result of the company is the latest evidence of slowing housing demand, hit by rising interest rates and higher home prices.
After a pre-market fall of 4.2%, the shares further declined to 5.6% after the results indicated that demand would likely fall further in November.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes plunged to a more than 2-1/2-year low in October, due to sharp declines across regions.
Toll Brothers, whose homes can cost upwards of $2 million, said orders (a key indicator of future revenue) dropped 13.3% to 1,715 units in the quarter ended Oct. 31, against the 6.5% rise expected by analysts.
Orders fell most in California, Toll’s biggest market by revenue. This was the hardest hit where orders in general declined by 39.4% to 226 units in the quarter.
Toll’s net income rose to $311 million, or $2.08 per share, in the quarter, beating analysts’ estimate of $1.83 per share, while revenue surged 21.1% to $2.46 billion against Wall Street’s expectation of $2.35 billion.
Momentum Indicator for TOL turns positive, indicating new upward trend
TOL saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on July 24, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 86 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 86 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 50-day moving average for TOL moved above the 200-day moving average on June 22, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 298 cases where TOL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on July 01, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 47 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TOL turned negative on July 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 55 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.653) is normal, around the industry mean (2.051). P/E Ratio (11.388) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.807). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.002) is also within normal values, averaging (3.509). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.319) is also within normal values, averaging (30.829).
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General Information
a designer of single family homes
Industry Homebuilding
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