Twilio (TWLO, $425.67)posts surprise Q4 profit
Twilio crushed analysts’ expectations by posting a profit for the fourth quarter.
The cloud communication platform’s adjusted earnings for the quarter came in at 4 cents per share, compared to a loss of -8 cents per share expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv.
Revenue of $548.1 million also topped analysts’ expectation sof $454.8 million.
Contribution of political activity was $23 million in revenue in the quarter. Facebook’s WhatsApp messaging app contributed 5% of revenue, down from 6% in the third quarter, according to Khozema Shipchandler, the company’s finance chief.
Twilio added 13,000 active customer accounts in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 8,000 in the third quarter. It has a total of 221,000 accounts as of fourth quarter.
“The pandemic accelerated change overnight,” Jeff Lawson, a co-founder of Twilio and its CEO, said on a conference call with analysts. “Health care had to accelerate the adoption of telemedicine and e-commerce companies accelerated their e-commerce plans. Companies that hired more developers and upped their digital game during the pandemic are not going back.”
Looking ahead, Twilio expects an adjusted loss of -12 cents to -9 cents per share for the first quarter, while analysts polled by Refinitiv expect adjusted loss of -2 cents per share. The company forecasts revenue of $526 million to $536 million (representing about 44% to 47% revenue growth), compared to analysts’ estimate of $492.1 million.
TWLO sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
TWLO saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on December 09, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TWLO moved out of overbought territory on December 13, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 34 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 18, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TWLO as a result. In of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TWLO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TWLO advanced for three days, in of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 218 cases where TWLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TWLO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.168) is normal, around the industry mean (11.086). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (48.888). TWLO's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (28.154) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.441). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.756) is also within normal values, averaging (19.577).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TWLO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a provider of cloud-based communications platform
Industry InternetSoftwareServices