U.S. Steel hitting upper rail of downward sloped channel
Iconic steel manufacturer U.S. Steel Group (NYSE: X) has been trending lower for over a year now and the stock has rallied in the past month and a half. Unfortunately the stock could be facing some resistance now as it is hitting the upper rail of a trend channel that has defined trading over the past six months.
You can see how the upper rail is formed by the highs in July and November. The lower rail isn’t as clear cut, but if the stock drops anywhere near the lower rail, it will take the price down below the $16 level.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bearish signal on the stock on February 5. That prediction showed a confidence level of 72% and previous predictions on U.S. Steel have been accurate 86% of the time. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% over the coming month.
U.S. Steel’s fundamentals are all over the place at this time. Earnings growth has been flat over the last few years, but the most recent quarterly report showed a jump of 139%. The company has a good return on equity at 25.6%, but the profit margin is a paltry 2.1%.
Given the downward trend, the confusing fundamentals, and the bearish signal, it would be hard to bet on U.S. Steel going up at this time.
X in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2024
X moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 28 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 11, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on X as a result. In of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for X just turned positive on October 11, 2024. Looking at past instances where X's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for X crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 21, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where X advanced for three days, in of 311 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for X moved out of overbought territory on October 25, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where X declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
X broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.698) is normal, around the industry mean (1.246). P/E Ratio (15.428) is within average values for comparable stocks, (60.499). X's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (0.592). X has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.006) as compared to the industry average of (0.046). P/S Ratio (0.534) is also within normal values, averaging (1.206).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. X’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
a manufacture of integrated steel products
Industry Steel