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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Aug 12, 2019

Union Pacific trending higher with solid fundamentals

One of the tenets of Dow Theory was to watch how transportation stocks were performing as a forecasting tool for how industrial stocks were doing. The idea being that if transportation companies started seeing slower growth, it was a bad sign for industrial companies. That idea works in reverse as well, when transportation companies start seeing stronger growth, industrial companies are likely to follow.

Right now there are several rail transportation companies that are showing really strong fundamentals and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) is one of them. Over the last three years the company has seen earnings grow by 21% per year and earnings were up 12% in the most recent quarterly report. In addition to the earnings growth, the company has really good management efficiency measurements with a return on equity of 26.4% and a profit margin of 33.9%.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9, pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth. Furthermore, the PEG ratio is (0.1) for UNP, as compared to the industry average of (0.3).

Looking at the chart for Union Pacific we see that the stock has been trending higher since the December low, but the last six months have seen a trend line help guide the stock higher. The trend line connects the lows from March, June, July, and this past week.

The stock hitting the trend line is one possible bullish catalyst for the stock and another one is the daily stochastic readings getting close to oversold territory before making a bullish crossover on August 9. There were similar readings from the indicators at the June low as well as the March low.

We also see from the Tickeron Overview on Union Pacific that “the lower Bollinger Band was broken -- a price increase is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which indicates a buy or call consideration for traders. In 22 of 39 cases where UNP's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.”

Another interesting stat that I noticed from the Tickeron Overview was the fact that the stock’s 50-day moving average made a bullish cross of its 200-day on September 28, 2017 and it has remained there ever since.

Looking at the sentiment indicators for Union Pacific we see that analysts are slightly less bullish on the stock than the average stock while short sellers are slightly more bullish. There are 26 analysts following the stock at this time and 16 of them have the stock rated as a “buy”. There are nine “hold” ratings and one “sell” rating. This puts the overall buy percentage at 61.5% and the average buy percentage seems to be in the 65% to 75%.

The short interest ratio is currently at 2.0 and that is a little below average. There are 5.76 million shares sold short and that number jumped by almost a million shares from the mid-July reading to the end of July reading. The ratio is a little low, but the big jump in the overall short interest indicates an increasing bearish view.

The overall picture for Union Pacific seems to be pretty bullish. The fundamentals and the technical picture both look good while the sentiment is mixed. The path of least resistance for the stock could be to the upside.

Related Ticker: UNP

UNP's RSI Indicator remains in oversold zone for 2 days

It is expected that a price bounce should occur soon.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UNP advanced for three days, in of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

UNP may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 13, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UNP as a result. In of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UNP turned negative on May 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

UNP moved below its 50-day moving average on May 21, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for UNP crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 28, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UNP declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for UNP entered a downward trend on June 17, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UNP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: UNP's P/B Ratio (8.621) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.971). P/E Ratio (21.144) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.937). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.416) is also within normal values, averaging (4.113). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.602) is also within normal values, averaging (4.300).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Union Pacific Corp (NYSE:UNP), CSX Corp (NASDAQ:CSX), Norfolk Southern Corp (NYSE:NSC).

Industry description

The Railroad industry includes passenger and freight transportation services along rail lines. This also includes companies that provide maintenance and switching duties as part of rail services. Within North America, the industry is largely dominated by some large operators. Several short-line railroads serve regional and local routes. Union Pacific Corporation, Canadian National Railway Company, and CSX Corporation are some of the prominent names in the business. The railroad business is relatively cyclical; economic expansion boost the freight services in particular, while economic stagnation often dampens transportation demand.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Railroads Industry is 15.4B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 320 to 135.51B. UNP holds the highest valuation in this group at 135.51B. The lowest valued company is URAL at 320.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Railroads Industry was -3%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -6%, and the average quarterly price growth was 2%. KIQSF experienced the highest price growth at 9%, while NXPGF experienced the biggest fall at -44%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Railroads Industry was 32%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 3% and the average quarterly volume growth was -56%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 57
P/E Growth Rating: 67
Price Growth Rating: 63
SMR Rating: 77
Profit Risk Rating: 77
Seasonality Score: 2 (-100 ... +100)
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UNPDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of railroad and freight transportation services

Industry Railroads

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Railroads
Address
1400 Douglas Street
Phone
+1 402 544-5000
Employees
32973
Web
https://www.up.com
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