US economic growth to slow in 2019 and 2020 - CNBC survey predicts
According to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, U.S. economic growth is expected to slow this year and the next. Respondents of the survey include economists, fund managers and strategists.
The survey respondents predict a growth of 2.3% on average for U.S. gross domestic product this year, lowering their expectations compared to the January forecast of 2.44%. The figure also indicates an expected deceleration compared to the actual 3.1% year-over-year growth of the fourth quarter 2018.
For 2020, the respondents expect an even slower economic growth at below 2%.
Global growth sluggishness and trade tariffs were the top reasons cited by respondents as headwinds to the U.S. economic growth. Slowing overseas growth was responsible for a reduction of 40 basis points in the GDP growth forecast, while tariffs imposed by the U.S. and other nations lowered expectations by another 20 basis points.
The implication, according to the survey results, could translate into fewer rate hikes by the Fed. 60% of the respondents are expecting just one hike in policy interest rate this year, while 14% are even conjecturing a possible rate cut.
SPY's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for SPY moved out of oversold territory on November 21, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 28, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPY as a result. In of 73 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on November 28, 2025. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY moved above its 50-day moving average on November 25, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 364 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for SPY crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 24, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for SPY entered a downward trend on December 02, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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