US economic growth to slow in 2019 and 2020 - CNBC survey predicts
According to the CNBC Fed Survey for March, U.S. economic growth is expected to slow this year and the next. Respondents of the survey include economists, fund managers and strategists.
The survey respondents predict a growth of 2.3% on average for U.S. gross domestic product this year, lowering their expectations compared to the January forecast of 2.44%. The figure also indicates an expected deceleration compared to the actual 3.1% year-over-year growth of the fourth quarter 2018.
For 2020, the respondents expect an even slower economic growth at below 2%.
Global growth sluggishness and trade tariffs were the top reasons cited by respondents as headwinds to the U.S. economic growth. Slowing overseas growth was responsible for a reduction of 40 basis points in the GDP growth forecast, while tariffs imposed by the U.S. and other nations lowered expectations by another 20 basis points.
The implication, according to the survey results, could translate into fewer rate hikes by the Fed. 60% of the respondents are expecting just one hike in policy interest rate this year, while 14% are even conjecturing a possible rate cut.
SPY sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SPY moved above the 200-day moving average on June 27, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 03, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SPY as a result. In of 68 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on June 26, 2025. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 366 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 436 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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