US inflation rises to +6.4% y-o-y in October, the fastest in threee decades
U.S. consumer price annual inflation in October reached the fastest pace in 30 years , as revealed in the Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Headline CPI in October was estimated to be 6.2% year-over-year, up from the 5.4% pace in September. October pace is the fastest rate since 1990. Month-over-month, inflation was up +0.9%.
Core inflation, which strips-out volatile components food and energy prices, was +0.6% on the month, and +4.6% year-over-year.
The increase in prices for energy, rent, food, cars and many other goods and services is weighing on consumer purchasing power.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other senior Fed leaders have said that inflation should cool off next year and fall back close to their 2% target, but they also indicated that upward price pressures have been stronger than they anticipated.
GOVT in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on June 17, 2025
GOVT moved above its 50-day moving average on June 17, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GOVT just turned positive on May 29, 2025. Looking at past instances where GOVT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day moving average for GOVT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 17, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GOVT advanced for three days, in of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 180 cases where GOVT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GOVT moved out of overbought territory on July 01, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 23 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 63 cases where GOVT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GOVT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
GOVT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 24, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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General Information
Category IntermediateGovernment
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