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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Apr 06, 2025

What to Expect from Stock Markets after “Liberation Day” April 2, 2025

In this video we present our view on the current market conditions after April 2d, 2025.

https://tickeron.com/app/academy/video/792 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I728kuQUfis&t=4s

The convergence of low liquidity, diminished labor participation, and high interest rates suggests that traditional buy-and-hold strategies may yield only modest long-term returns. With Trump now serving as the current president, his policies—including tariffs reminiscent of those that disrupted markets in the past—continue to shape the economic environment. In such conditions, active trading strategies, particularly those emphasizing hedging and risk management, may offer superior returns compared to a passive approach.

We will cover the following topics
Stock Market Uncertainty 
Stock Market Valuations Now vs. Dot Com Bubble  
Technical Analysis for S&P 500 
Chances of Recession
Stock Market Expectations for 2025
Leading Indicators
AI Bubble of 2023 and 2024
Making a Case for Trading vs. Investing 
As we are all in 2025, the investment landscape is poised for significant transformation. 
Disclaimers and Limitation

Related Ticker: QQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM

QQQ in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on April 03, 2025

QQQ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 36 cases where QQQ's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where QQQ's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 21, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on QQQ as a result. In of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for QQQ just turned positive on April 14, 2025. Looking at past instances where QQQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where QQQ advanced for three days, in of 384 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where QQQ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for QQQ entered a downward trend on April 10, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), Costco Wholesale Corp (NASDAQ:COST).

Industry description

The investment seeks investment results that generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index®. To maintain the correspondence between the composition and weights of the securities in the trust (the "securities") and the stocks in the NASDAQ-100 Index®, the adviser adjusts the securities from time to time to conform to periodic changes in the identity and/or relative weights of index securities. The composition and weighting of the securities portion of a portfolio deposit are also adjusted to conform to changes in the index.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF is 236.23B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 16.73B to 3.15T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.15T. The lowest valued company is ON at 16.73B.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF was 6%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was -2%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4%. MCHP experienced the highest price growth at 22%, while TMUS experienced the biggest fall at -11%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF was 9%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 5% and the average quarterly volume growth was 30%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 63
P/E Growth Rating: 53
Price Growth Rating: 54
SMR Rating: 49
Profit Risk Rating: 46
Seasonality Score: -17 (-100 ... +100)
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