Will TJX (TJX, $53.22) and Ross Stores (ROST, $97.14) be able to beat headwinds facing retail industry?
2018 was a strong year for major U.S retailers including off-price giants like TJX Companies and Ross Stores whose comparable-store sales grew 6% and 4% respectively during the year.
However, with the retail industry experiencing some strong headwinds over the last months owing to a volatile market and many retailers have already experienced sales slowdowns.
TJX and Ross Stores are scheduled to report their first-quarter results next week and the investors are worrying whether they too succumbed to the headwinds. However, there are good reasons to hope that it may not be the case and the companies have managed to carve out a decent quarter in terms of sales.
One of the primary reasons for the optimism about TJX and Ross’s quarterly results is their consistency. 2018 was the fourth consecutive year when Ross posted a 4% comp sales increase. TJX too averaged 4% comp-sales growth over the period gaining 6% in 2018, 2% in 2017, and 5% in 2016.
Another reason is that both the companies have a conservative approach towards forecasts and in most cases, they exceed those forecasts. So the investors can hope that they will meet their targets even when the market is volatile.
In keeping with this approach, Ross anticipates comp sales rise up to 2% in Q1, earnings per share would come in between $1.05 and $1.11 compared to $1.11 in 2018, and total sales to rise almost 6% to $3.79 billion with EPS of $1.12.
On the other hand, TJX expects a 2% to 3% comp sales gain but EPS may get hurt by 7% owing to higher freight costs, wage increases, and currency headwinds. Total sales are expected to rise 6% to $9.21 billion with an EPS of $0.55.
Furthermore, following the recent tariff raise on $200 billion Chinese imports which may further increase, the retail industry is in for some serious long term threats. But the exact nature of impact is still not clear and while TJX and Ross’s track records may inspire assurance, there’s still no guarantee in investing.
TJX's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TJX moved out of oversold territory on September 17, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 17 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 13 of the 17 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TJX as a result. In 42 of 72 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TJX just turned positive on September 18, 2026. Looking at past instances where TJX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +2.88% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TJX advanced for three days, in 196 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TJX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 35%.
The Aroon Indicator for TJX entered a downward trend on September 25, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TJX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: TJX's P/B Ratio (13.459) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.366). P/E Ratio (24.120) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). TJX's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.014) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. TJX's P/S Ratio (2.210) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.652).
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General Information
a chain of retail apparels and home fashions stores
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
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