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AAON vs CARR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAON, Inc. (AAON) vs. Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AAON and CARR have delivered strong YTD gains around 23%, outpacing the S&P 500's 6% return amid HVAC sector demand from data centers.
- AAON's market cap stands at $7.7B with a high P/E ratio of 73, reflecting premium valuation on data center cooling growth, while CARR's $53B cap and P/E of 43 indicate broader scale.
- Recent quarters show robust revenue: AAON Q4 2025 sales up 42.5% to $424M; CARR Q1 2026 up 2.4% to $5.3B, boosted by data center orders surging over 500%.
- Both firms benefit from AI-driven data center expansion, but AAON emphasizes custom solutions via BASX, while CARR leverages global HVAC and refrigeration diversity.
- Backlogs signal future strength: AAON at $1.8B (up 111% YoY), CARR with growing orders in commercial HVAC.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AAON, a specialized HVAC manufacturer, and CARR, a global climate solutions leader, in the context of rising demand for cooling systems driven by data centers and commercial applications. Both operate in the building products equipment sector, benefiting from energy-efficient HVAC trends. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term growth in industrials will find value in their relative performance, valuations, and exposure to AI infrastructure. Recent market activity highlights contrasts in scale, growth trajectories, and sentiment shifts, aiding informed positioning in this dynamic segment.
AAON Overview and Recent Performance
AAON, Inc., headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, engineers, manufactures, and sells semi-custom HVAC equipment including rooftop units, data center cooling, and energy recovery systems for commercial and industrial use. Operating through segments like AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX, it targets sectors such as data centers, education, and healthcare via reps and online sales.
In recent market activity, AAON shares traded around $94, with YTD returns near 23% surpassing broader indices. Q4 2025 results featured record sales of $424 million, up 42.5% year-over-year, driven by BASX liquid cooling demand for AI data centers—BASX sales rose 143% to $548 million annually, backlog hitting $1.3 billion. Despite an EPS miss at $0.39 versus $0.46 expected, a massive $1.8 billion total backlog (up 111%) and 2026 guidance for 18-20% sales growth fueled optimism. Sentiment reflects data center catalysts offsetting margin pressures from expansion, with analyst targets around $120.
CARR Overview and Recent Performance
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR), based in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, delivers intelligent climate and energy solutions worldwide across segments including Climate Solutions Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific/Middle East/Africa, and Transportation. Its portfolio spans HVAC, heat pumps, refrigeration, and services under brands like Carrier, Viessmann, and Toshiba for residential, commercial, and transport needs.
Recent weeks saw CARR shares near $64, posting YTD gains of about 23% amid sector tailwinds. Q1 2026 revenue climbed 2.4% to $5.34 billion, beating estimates, with adjusted EPS of $0.57 topping consensus—data center orders surged over 500%, supporting commercial HVAC growth. Though organic revenue dipped slightly, strong backlogs and pricing aided margins. Performance reflects diversified exposure cushioning residential softness, with shares rallying post-earnings on AI-related momentum and reiterated $22 billion full-year sales outlook.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AAON and CARR share HVAC sector exposure but diverge in scale and focus. AAON’s nimble, custom-engineered model targets high-growth niches like data center liquid cooling via BASX, yielding explosive backlog growth but elevated P/E (73) and volatility from capex-heavy expansion. CARR, with global diversification into residential, commercial, and transport refrigeration, offers stability at a lower P/E (43) and massive $53B market cap versus $7.7B.
Growth drivers contrast: AAON’s 42% Q4 surge ties to AI catalysts, while CARR balances data center spikes with steady services revenue. Momentum favors both YTD, but CARR shows less earnings volatility. Risks include AAON’s margin compression amid buildout and CARR’s organic sales softness in residential. Sentiment leans positive on data centers for both, trading off AAON’s upside potential against CARR’s defensive breadth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor AAON for its superior trend consistency in recent weeks, explosive backlog conversion from data center catalysts, and relative outperformance in growth metrics versus peers. While CARR provides stability through diversification, AAON’s positioning in high-demand custom cooling suggests higher probabilistic upside in the near term, assuming sustained AI infrastructure spend.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAON is a Hold and CARR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileCARR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- AAON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CARR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAON’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CARR’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CARR’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAON (@Building Products) experienced а +42.61% price change this week, while CARR (@Building Products) price change was +2.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was +5.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.77%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAON is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
CARR is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (+5.31% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| AAON | CARR | AAON / CARR | |
| Capitalization | 10.9B | 54.5B | 20% |
| EBITDA | 250M | 3.16B | 8% |
| Gain YTD | 75.394 | 25.049 | 301% |
| P/E Ratio | 94.06 | 43.71 | 215% |
| Revenue | 1.62B | 21.9B | 7% |
| Total Cash | 13K | 1.37B | 0% |
| Total Debt | 451M | 12.6B | 4% |
AAON | CARR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 55 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 71 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 61 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CARR's Valuation (66) in the null industry is in the same range as AAON (95) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that CARR’s stock grew similarly to AAON’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as CARR (55) in the null industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's SMR Rating (60) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as CARR (71) in the null industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as CARR (46) in the null industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (61) in the null industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
| AAON | CARR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 66% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 5 days ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 12 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 63% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 56% |
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AAON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAON has been loosely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAON jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AAON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 100% | -5.74% | ||
| IR - AAON | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.99% | ||
| CARR - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| APT - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -4.37% | ||
| LPX - AAON | 41% Loosely correlated | -1.69% | ||
| BXC - AAON | 40% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
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CARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CARR has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CARR jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARR | 100% | -0.49% | ||
| IR - CARR | 76% Closely correlated | -1.99% | ||
| LII - CARR | 74% Closely correlated | -2.48% | ||
| TT - CARR | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| BXC - CARR | 58% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
| JCI - CARR | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.52% | ||
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