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AAON vs TT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAON, Inc. (AAON) vs. Trane Technologies plc (TT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AAON and TT operate in the HVAC sector, benefiting from data center cooling demand, with YTD returns around 23% as of recent market activity.
- AAON shows strong backlog growth to $1.83 billion, driven by BASX data center solutions, though recent EPS missed estimates.
- TT reported robust Q1 results with revenue up 6% to $4.97 billion and raised full-year EPS guidance, supported by a record $10.7 billion backlog.
- TT trades at a lower P/E ratio (around 36x) compared to AAON's elevated 72x, reflecting scale differences.
- Recent momentum favors TT with consistent beats, while AAON offers higher growth potential in niche cooling.
- Analyst targets suggest upside for both, with AAON at $123 average and TT at $518.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AAON, Inc. and Trane Technologies plc (TT), two key players in the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) industry. Both companies serve commercial and industrial markets, increasingly driven by data center cooling needs amid AI expansion. Traders seeking momentum in industrials and investors eyeing sector growth—particularly in energy-efficient solutions—may find value in analyzing their relative performance, backlogs, and market positioning. Recent quarters highlight contrasts in scale, execution, and growth trajectories, offering insights into stock comparison dynamics in the current environment.
AAON Overview and Recent Performance
AAON, Inc. engineers, manufactures, and sells HVAC equipment, including rooftop units, data center cooling, and energy recovery systems, primarily for commercial applications. Headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, it operates through segments like AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX, focusing on custom solutions for data centers and cleanrooms.
In recent market activity, AAON's stock has delivered strong YTD gains of about 23%, trading around $94 with a $7.7 billion market cap. Q4 2025 results showed revenue surging 42.5% to $424 million, beating estimates, fueled by BASX sales up 143% to $548 million annually. Backlog hit a record $1.83 billion, up 111%, driven by AI data center demand. However, adjusted EPS of $0.39 missed expectations, pressuring margins amid capacity expansions. Sentiment reflects optimism on 2026 guidance for 18-20% sales growth, though volatility persists from execution risks in new facilities.
TT Overview and Recent Performance
Trane Technologies plc (TT) designs, manufactures, and services HVAC and refrigeration solutions for buildings, transport, and industrial uses under brands like Trane and Thermo King. The Ireland-based firm emphasizes climate innovation and energy efficiency across global markets.
Recent weeks saw TT's shares around $477, with a massive $106 billion market cap and YTD returns near 23%. Q1 2026 earnings beat forecasts, with revenue at $4.97 billion (up 6%) and adjusted EPS of $2.63 (up 7%). Bookings rose 24%, pushing backlog to a record $10.7 billion, led by 40% growth in Americas commercial HVAC. The company raised full-year guidance, citing strong demand and backlog visibility. Performance reflects scale advantages and consistent execution, though shares dipped amid broader market moves. Positive sentiment stems from data center exposure and efficiency initiatives.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AAON and TT share HVAC exposure but differ in scale and focus. AAON's nimble, custom-engineered products, especially BASX for data centers, drive outsized backlog growth (111% YoY), positioning it for high-margin niches amid AI boom. TT, a global giant, leverages diversified services and installed base for steady revenue, with broader sector reach including transport refrigeration.
Growth drivers contrast: AAON eyes 20%+ expansion via data centers (13% of revenue), while TT targets 7-9% organic growth on commercial HVAC strength. Recent momentum favors TT post-earnings beats, versus AAON's volatility from margin pressure. Risks include AAON's execution on expansions and TT's cyclical exposure. Sentiment tilts to TT for stability, AAON for upside in relative performance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TT over AAON, based on superior trend consistency, larger backlog scale, and recent earnings execution. TT's raised guidance and lower valuation signal stronger relative positioning, with higher probability of sustained momentum in commercial HVAC demand. While AAON holds catalysts in data center growth, its margin risks temper near-term stability.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAON is a StrongBuy and TT is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AAON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAON’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AAON (@Building Products) experienced а -2.54% price change this week, while TT (@Building Products) price change was -4.20% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -1.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.52%, and the average quarterly price growth was +21.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAON is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
TT is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (-1.86% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| AAON | TT | AAON / TT | |
| Capitalization | 10.7B | 99B | 11% |
| EBITDA | 250M | 4.26B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | 71.061 | 15.388 | 462% |
| P/E Ratio | 91.74 | 34.23 | 268% |
| Revenue | 1.62B | 21.6B | 7% |
| Total Cash | 13K | 1.07B | 0% |
| Total Debt | 451M | 4.62B | 10% |
AAON | TT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 81 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 13 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 53 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 51 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TT's Valuation (81) in the null industry is in the same range as AAON (95) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TT’s stock grew similarly to AAON’s over the last 12 months.
TT's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the null industry is in the same range as AAON (40) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TT’s stock grew similarly to AAON’s over the last 12 months.
TT's SMR Rating (26) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAON (60) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that TT’s stock grew somewhat faster than AAON’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TT (53) in the null industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to TT’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TT (51) in the null industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew somewhat faster than TT’s over the last 12 months.
| AAON | TT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 76% | 7 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 67% |
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AAON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAON has been loosely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAON jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AAON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 100% | -2.74% | ||
| IR - AAON | 46% Loosely correlated | -2.04% | ||
| APT - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -2.90% | ||
| CARR - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -4.76% | ||
| LPX - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -4.86% | ||
| BXC - AAON | 40% Loosely correlated | -11.17% | ||
More | ||||
TT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TT has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TT jumps, then IR could also see price increases.