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ABG vs ONEW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) vs. OneWater Marine (ONEW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ABG is a large U.S. automotive retailer facing margin normalization, softer vehicle volumes, and a wave of recent analyst downgrades that pushed shares toward 52-week lows.
- ONEW is a recreational marine retailer improving gross margins and sharply reducing leverage even as revenue declines amid a soft boat market.
- Both companies are Georgia-based consumer discretionary retailers, but they operate in very different end markets with different cyclical drivers.
- ABG shows stronger cash generation and scale, while ONEW is executing a balance-sheet turnaround and portfolio simplification.
- Recent relative performance favors neither clearly: both stocks have lagged the broader market in recent months.
- Tickeron's AI evaluates trend consistency, stability, and catalysts to compare these two names objectively.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ABG (Asbury Automotive Group) and ONEW (OneWater Marine), two retail-oriented companies that sell big-ticket consumer products in the United States. Although both belong to the consumer discretionary sector, their businesses are structurally different: one retails automobiles while the other retails recreational boats. Traders and investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and risk often compare these names because both are sensitive to interest rates, consumer confidence, and financing costs. This analysis reviews their recent business results, sentiment shifts, and the factors that could shape their performance in the current environment.
ABG Overview and Recent Performance
Asbury Automotive Group is a Fortune 500 automotive retailer headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, operating 171 new-vehicle dealerships across 223 franchises as of late 2025. ABG generates revenue from new and used vehicles, parts and service, and finance and insurance (F&I) products. In recent quarters, the company has navigated a moderating vehicle market, reporting roughly $4.1 billion in first-quarter revenue with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) that declined year over year. Parts and service has become its largest gross profit contributor, offering a steadier income stream as vehicle sales soften.
In recent weeks, sentiment toward ABG has cooled. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Barclays issued downgrades and trimmed price targets, citing rising earnings volatility and industry-wide price competition. The stock has traded toward the lower end of its 52-week range, with year-to-date relative performance lagging the broader market. Management has responded by divesting select dealerships, repurchasing shares, and migrating stores to a new dealer management system (DMS) platform—an initiative expected to improve efficiency once completed but creating temporary operational disruption in the interim.
ONEW Overview and Recent Performance
OneWater Marine is a recreational marine retailer headquartered in Buford, Georgia, selling new and pre-owned boats alongside service, parts, and finance and insurance offerings. Unlike ABG, ONEW operates in a smaller, more cyclical niche tied closely to discretionary spending on leisure goods. Recent quarters have shown declining revenue—down about 8.5% year over year in its fiscal second quarter—but improving profitability. Gross margin expanded to roughly 23.9%, and management has prioritized product mix, inventory discipline, and cost control.
A defining recent development for ONEW has been balance-sheet strengthening. The company completed the sale of its Ocean Bio-Chem segment and used proceeds, plus operating cash flow, to repay about $57 million of debt, reducing its adjusted net leverage ratio from 5.8x to roughly 3.7x trailing adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization). While top-line softness persists, these structural improvements have positioned the company for a potential market recovery, and the stock has continued to trade at a relatively modest valuation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale and market exposure. ABG is a diversified, multi-billion-dollar dealership operator with a meaningful recurring parts-and-service business that cushions earnings when new-vehicle sales decline. ONEW is a smaller, more concentrated operator whose results are more directly tied to the discretionary marine cycle, though its growing mix of higher-margin pre-owned and service revenue is gradually reducing that cyclicality.
On growth drivers, ABG is investing in digital retailing and its DMS transition, aiming for long-term cost efficiency, while ONEW is focused on margin expansion, inventory optimization, and deleveraging. Risk profiles differ as well: ABG carries elevated leverage from past acquisitions and faces new-vehicle margin pressure, whereas ONEW carries a smaller revenue base and ongoing losses in seasonally weaker quarters, offset by rapid balance-sheet improvement. Recent momentum is similarly challenged for both, with each stock underperforming the broader market in recent months, though their underlying fundamentals are improving in different ways.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ONEW in the current environment, with appropriate caution. The reasoning is probabilistic rather than definitive: ONEW is showing a clearer, more consistent trend of margin expansion and deleveraging, which are typically viewed favorably by trend-following models. By contrast, ABG is contending with declining same-store sales, earnings volatility, and recent downgrades that have pressured its trend and sentiment. That said, ABG's superior scale, liquidity, and recurring parts-and-service revenue represent meaningful stability factors. Any AI-driven conclusion depends on the specific bot's strategy, timeframe, and risk settings, and should be understood as a probability-based assessment rather than a guarantee of future performance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ABG is a StrongBuy and ONEW is a Hold.
ABG's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ABG moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 62 cases where ABG's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ABG as a result. In 70 of 93 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ABG just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ABG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +4.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ABG advanced for three days, in 219 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 50-day moving average for ABG moved below the 200-day moving average on September 24, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ABG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for ABG entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.751) is normal, around the industry mean (1.320). P/E Ratio (6.094) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.107). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.449) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.207) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ABG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ABG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.
ONEW sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for ONEW moved below the 200-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ONEW as a result. In 66 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONEW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Aroon Indicator for ONEW entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ONEW's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 30 of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 62 cases where ONEW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ONEW just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ONEW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONEW advanced for three days, in 225 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
ONEW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.543) is normal, around the industry mean (2.329). P/E Ratio (-1.217) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.119). ONEW's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.040) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.159). ONEW's Dividend Yield (0.773) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.093). P/S Ratio (0.087) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ONEW’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ONEW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
ABG | ONEW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 7 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 50 Fair valued | 3 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 80 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 21 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONEW's Valuation (3) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ABG (50) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ONEW’s stock grew somewhat faster than ABG’s over the last 12 months.
ONEW's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the null industry is in the same range as ABG (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ONEW’s stock grew similarly to ABG’s over the last 12 months.
ABG's SMR Rating (60) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ONEW (97) in the null industry. This means that ABG’s stock grew somewhat faster than ONEW’s over the last 12 months.
ONEW's Price Growth Rating (63) in the null industry is in the same range as ABG (78) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ONEW’s stock grew similarly to ABG’s over the last 12 months.
ONEW's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ABG (80) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ONEW’s stock grew somewhat faster than ABG’s over the last 12 months.
| ABG | ONEW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 2 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 70% | 21 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 70% | 4 days ago 84% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ABG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ONEW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ABG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ONEW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ABG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONEW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ABG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ONEW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ABG (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а +1.28% price change this week, while ONEW (@Specialty Stores) price change was +5.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -4.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.76%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +0.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
ABG is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
ONEW is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-4.07% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
@Specialty Stores (+0.60% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
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ABG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ABG has been closely correlated with AN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ABG jumps, then AN could also see price increases.
ONEW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONEW has been loosely correlated with AN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ONEW jumps, then AN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONEW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONEW | 100% | -0.64% | ||
| AN - ONEW | 55% Loosely correlated | -5.49% | ||
| RUSHA - ONEW | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| ABG - ONEW | 54% Loosely correlated | -4.69% | ||
| FND - ONEW | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.22% | ||
| PAG - ONEW | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.09% | ||
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