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AN vs ONEW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AutoNation (AN) vs. OneWater Marine (ONEW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AN (AutoNation) is one of the largest U.S. automotive retailers, while ONEW (OneWater Marine) is a leading recreational marine and boat retailer, placing the two in very different sectors.
- AutoNation is leaning on its high-margin, recurring after-sales and finance operations to offset softer new-vehicle volumes, while OneWater is pursuing margin expansion and aggressive debt reduction ahead of a hoped-for market recovery.
- AutoNation is far larger and consistently profitable, whereas OneWater is a smaller-cap name that has been transitioning through restructuring and divestitures.
- Both stocks have lagged the broader market over the past year, but for different reasons: AN faces volume and cost pressures, while ONEW contends with a still-soft marine retail cycle.
- The comparison ultimately weighs a large-cap, cash-generative cyclical leader against a smaller, higher-risk turnaround story with improving balance-sheet metrics.
Introduction
Investors often compare stocks within the same industry, but contrasting companies from adjacent consumer-discretionary niches can reveal more about risk, valuation, and momentum. AN (AutoNation) and ONEW (OneWater Marine) both sell high-ticket vehicles to U.S. consumers, yet they operate on sharply different scales and face distinct cyclical pressures. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors evaluating whether to favor a mature, cash-generative automotive retailer or a smaller marine dealer in the midst of a portfolio overhaul. By examining their relative performance, market positioning, and recent developments, readers can better understand the trade-offs between stability and recovery-oriented upside.
AN Overview and Recent Performance
AutoNation is one of the largest automotive retailers in the United States, operating a nationwide network of dealerships selling new and used vehicles alongside financing, parts, and maintenance services. Its earnings profile has become increasingly weighted toward recurring, higher-margin lines: after-sales (parts and service) now accounts for roughly half of gross profit, while customer financial services and its captive AutoNation Finance unit continue to scale.
In recent weeks, the company's results have reflected a familiar pattern. New-vehicle unit volumes have softened, partly due to difficult comparisons against tariff-related demand that pulled sales forward in the prior year and weaker battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales. This pressure has been offset by record after-sales gross profit and stronger per-unit finance profitability. AutoNation has also leaned on share repurchases and free cash flow conversion to support returns, even as adjusted selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses as a percentage of gross profit have run above management's longer-term target range. Sentiment has been mixed: one major bank initiated coverage with a Buy rating earlier in the year, while another brokerage more recently downgraded the shares to Equal Weight, citing softer volumes and structural overhangs. The stock has trended lower over the past year despite five consecutive quarters of year-over-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) growth.
ONEW Overview and Recent Performance
OneWater Marine is a recreational marine retailer, selling new and pre-owned boats, engines, and related parts and services across the United States. The company has been executing a deliberate simplification strategy: it divested its Ocean Bio-Chem business, exited certain brands, and applied proceeds toward paying down debt. These moves have narrowed revenue but improved focus and margins.
In recent quarters, OneWater's financial story has centered on margin expansion and deleveraging rather than top-line growth. Revenue has declined on a year-over-year basis, pressured by a measured retail environment and the divestiture, while gross margin has improved and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) has grown. Management reduced adjusted net leverage meaningfully, reaching its target ahead of schedule, and inventory levels have been kept disciplined. The stock has underperformed the broader market over the past year, but the underlying balance-sheet improvement has meaningfully changed the company's risk profile. Net income has improved in the most recent quarter, though reported results remain choppy as the company works through impairments and restructuring-related charges.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies is scale and maturity. AutoNation generates billions of dollars in quarterly revenue, carries an investment-grade profile, and funds buybacks and acquisitions from strong free cash flow. OneWater is a much smaller operator whose near-term priority is repairing its balance sheet and simplifying its portfolio rather than expanding. In terms of growth drivers, AutoNation is betting on recurring after-sales revenue and its captive finance business to offset cyclical new-vehicle weakness, while OneWater is relying on margin discipline and lower leverage to position for an eventual marine industry recovery.
Risk profiles also diverge. AutoNation faces cost inflation, softer unit volumes, and regulatory and technological overhangs around dealership economics. OneWater remains exposed to discretionary spending on big-ticket boats, higher relative leverage, and the residual volatility of restructuring. On momentum, both stocks have trailed the market, but AutoNation offers more stable earnings and a defensive, diversified mix, whereas OneWater presents a higher-beta (more volatile relative to the market) turnaround with improving, yet still developing, fundamentals.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor AN over ONEW in the current environment. AutoNation demonstrates more consistent trend structure, a diversified and recurring revenue mix, robust cash generation, and a track record of consecutive adjusted EPS growth, even amid a softer sales cycle. OneWater's improving margins and deleveraging are encouraging, but its smaller scale, higher leverage, and dependence on a cyclical recovery introduce greater uncertainty. This reflects a probabilistic assessment of relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction: if marine demand inflects upward, OneWater could offer more torque, but AutoNation's stability and recurring earnings currently present a more reliable profile for most market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AN is a StrongBuy and ONEW is a Hold.
AN's MACD Histogram crosses above signal line
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AN turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where AN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 35 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AN as a result. In 59 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +5.58% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AN advanced for three days, in 223 of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 63 cases where AN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The 10-day moving average for AN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The 50-day moving average for AN moved below the 200-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
The Aroon Indicator for AN entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 56 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.239) is normal, around the industry mean (1.320). P/E Ratio (7.019) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.107). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.444) is also within normal values, averaging (0.695). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.255) is also within normal values, averaging (0.919).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ONEW sees its 50-day moving average cross bearishly below its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for ONEW moved below the 200-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ONEW as a result. In 66 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONEW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Aroon Indicator for ONEW entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ONEW's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 30 of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 47 of 62 cases where ONEW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ONEW just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where ONEW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +3.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONEW advanced for three days, in 225 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
ONEW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 3 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.543) is normal, around the industry mean (2.329). P/E Ratio (-1.217) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.119). ONEW's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.040) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.159). ONEW's Dividend Yield (0.773) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.093). P/S Ratio (0.087) is also within normal values, averaging (1.057).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 16 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 21 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ONEW’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ONEW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
AN | ONEW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 56 Fair valued | 3 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 97 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 88 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 21 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ONEW's Valuation (3) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AN (56) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ONEW’s stock grew somewhat faster than AN’s over the last 12 months.
AN's Profit vs Risk Rating (68) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as ONEW (100) in the null industry. This means that AN’s stock grew similarly to ONEW’s over the last 12 months.
AN's SMR Rating (31) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for ONEW (97) in the null industry. This means that AN’s stock grew significantly faster than ONEW’s over the last 12 months.
ONEW's Price Growth Rating (63) in the null industry is in the same range as AN (78) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ONEW’s stock grew similarly to AN’s over the last 12 months.
ONEW's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for AN (88) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that ONEW’s stock grew significantly faster than AN’s over the last 12 months.
| AN | ONEW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 2 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 65% | 21 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 84% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ONEW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ONEW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AN’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONEW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AN’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ONEW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AN (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а -0.12% price change this week, while ONEW (@Specialty Stores) price change was +5.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was -4.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -18.76%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Specialty Stores industry was +0.60%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.18%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
AN is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
ONEW is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (-4.07% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
@Specialty Stores (+0.60% weekly)The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.
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AN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AN has been closely correlated with PAG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AN jumps, then PAG could also see price increases.
ONEW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONEW has been loosely correlated with AN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ONEW jumps, then AN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONEW | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONEW | 100% | -0.64% | ||
| AN - ONEW | 55% Loosely correlated | -5.49% | ||
| RUSHA - ONEW | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| ABG - ONEW | 54% Loosely correlated | -4.69% | ||
| FND - ONEW | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.22% | ||
| PAG - ONEW | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.09% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| AKRE | 60.39 | 2.26 | +3.89% |
| Akre Focus ETF (AKRE) | |||
| TEMD | 24.27 | 0.06 | +0.25% |
| Templeton Emerging Markets Debt ETF (TEMD) | |||
| NBOS | 28.62 | -0.20 | -0.69% |
| Neuberger Option Strategy ETF (NBOS) | |||
| SEPU | 31.63 | -0.28 | -0.88% |
| AllianzIM U.S. Equity Buffer15 Uncapped Sep ETF (SEPU) | |||
| SPCL | 12.75 | -1.64 | -11.40% |
| Defiance Pure Space Daily 2X Strategy ETF (SPCL) | |||