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ARM vs ONTO
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arm Holdings (ARM) vs. Onto Innovation (ONTO) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both ARM and ONTO have posted robust year-to-date (YTD) gains of approximately 90% and 86%, respectively, fueled by semiconductor demand.
- ARM commands a market capitalization of $224 billion, dwarfing ONTO's $14.6 billion, reflecting its dominant IP licensing model.
- Recent one-month performance shows ARM up around 42%, outpacing ONTO's 32% advance amid AI-driven momentum.
- Trailing P/E (price-to-earnings) ratios stand at 278x for ARM and 105x for ONTO, signaling premium valuations tied to growth prospects.
- Upcoming earnings reports for both could catalyze further moves, with analysts maintaining bullish outlooks.
- Semiconductor sector tailwinds, particularly AI infrastructure, underpin relative strength for these stocks.
Introduction
ARM and ONTO represent compelling opportunities within the semiconductor ecosystem, where ARM provides intellectual property for chip designs and ONTO delivers metrology and inspection tools essential for advanced manufacturing. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders and investors navigating the AI boom and chip supply chain dynamics. Both stocks have exhibited strong recent market positioning, offering insights into growth drivers, valuation trade-offs, and sector exposure. Understanding their relative performance aids in portfolio allocation amid volatile tech trends.
ARM Overview and Recent Performance
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) specializes in designing energy-efficient processor architectures licensed to major chipmakers like Apple, Nvidia, and Qualcomm. Its business model thrives on royalties from a vast ecosystem of devices powered by Arm-based chips. In recent market activity, ARM shares have surged, reflecting robust revenue growth—up 26% year-over-year in the latest quarter—and heightened AI demand. Sentiment has been bolstered by partnerships in AI workloads and a "parabolic" trajectory noted by analysts, though tempered by share sales from partners like TSMC. The stock's YTD advance of 90% underscores its leadership in next-generation computing.
ONTO Overview and Recent Performance
Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) focuses on advanced process control solutions, including metrology and inspection systems critical for semiconductor fabrication at leading-edge nodes. This positions it as a key enabler for high-volume production of AI and advanced logic chips. Recent weeks have seen ONTO shares climb significantly, with one-week gains of 13% and quarterly advances of 39%, driven by strong demand for its Dragonfly systems and positive earnings revisions. Analyst upgrades and Zacks Strong Buy ratings have fueled optimism, contributing to an 86% YTD rise amid broader semis momentum.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ARM’s IP licensing model offers scalable, high-margin growth with minimal capex, contrasting ONTO’s hardware-centric approach requiring R&D investment in inspection tech. Both leverage AI chip demand—ARM via architecture ubiquity, ONTO through process control for sub-3nm nodes—but ARM exhibits stronger recent momentum. Risk factors differ: ARM faces lofty valuations and partner dilution, while ONTO contends with cyclical equipment orders. Sector exposure is concentrated in semis, yet ARM’s broader ecosystem yields higher market sentiment, per analyst targets averaging $172 vs. ONTO’s $334 (relative to current prices).
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ARM for its superior trend consistency, explosive recent gains, and pivotal role in AI processor designs, positioning it advantageously amid ongoing catalysts like earnings and ecosystem expansion. While ONTO offers solid stability and inclusion in trending bots, ARM’s relative momentum suggests higher probability of outperformance in the near term, barring sector shocks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARM is a Hold and ONTO is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileONTO’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ARM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ONTO’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARM’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONTO’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ONTO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ARM (@Semiconductors) experienced а -23.94% price change this week, while ONTO (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -2.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was -10.58%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was +83.46%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was -9.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.31%, and the average quarterly price growth was +121.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARM is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
ONTO is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (-10.58% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (-9.96% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ARM | ONTO | ARM / ONTO | |
| Capitalization | 357B | 16.1B | 2,217% |
| EBITDA | 1.16B | 199M | 581% |
| Gain YTD | 205.800 | 105.194 | 196% |
| P/E Ratio | 479.67 | 161.80 | 296% |
| Revenue | 4.92B | 1.03B | 477% |
| Total Cash | 3.6B | 654M | 551% |
| Total Debt | 457M | 17.5M | 2,611% |
ONTO | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 85 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 39 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| ARM | ONTO | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 86% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 23 days ago 74% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 77% |
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ARM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARM has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARM jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 100% | -3.87% | ||
| LRCX - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | -5.66% | ||
| KLAC - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | -3.93% | ||
| AMAT - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | -6.16% | ||
| FORM - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | -12.38% | ||
| VECO - ARM | 66% Closely correlated | -5.96% | ||
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ONTO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONTO has been closely correlated with AMAT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ONTO jumps, then AMAT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONTO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONTO | 100% | -5.90% | ||
| AMAT - ONTO | 77% Closely correlated | -6.16% | ||
| KLAC - ONTO | 74% Closely correlated | -3.93% | ||
| NVMI - ONTO | 73% Closely correlated | -8.67% | ||
| LRCX - ONTO | 73% Closely correlated | -5.66% | ||
| UCTT - ONTO | 72% Closely correlated | -1.52% | ||
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