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BIRK vs ONON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) vs. On Holding AG (ONON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BIRK trades at a lower P/E ratio of approximately 16.5 compared to ONON's 45, indicating potentially better relative valuation in recent market activity.
- ONON boasts a larger market cap of $11.7 billion and stronger YTD performance at +24%, outperforming BIRK's +4% amid consumer cyclical pressures.
- Both stocks in the footwear sector have faced volatility over the past year, with BIRK down 25% and ONON down 29%, reflecting broader sector challenges.
- Recent analyst sentiment remains positive for both, with average price targets suggesting 50-70% upside potential from current levels around $39 for BIRK and $35 for ONON.
- BIRK shows revenue growth of 15% TTM to $2.5 billion, while ONON reports 30% growth to $3 billion, highlighting differing growth trajectories.
- Upcoming earnings for both—BIRK on May 13 and ONON around late May—could drive sentiment shifts in the footwear space.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines BIRK and ONON, two prominent players in the footwear industry within the consumer cyclical sector. Both companies specialize in innovative footbed technologies—Birkenstock with its iconic cork sandals and On Holding with performance running shoes—making them relevant for investors tracking lifestyle and athletic apparel trends. Traders focused on relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning in a volatile environment for discretionary spending will find value in this analysis, particularly amid recent earnings anticipation and sector rotation.
BIRK Overview and Recent Performance
Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK), founded in 1774 and headquartered in London, manufactures and sells footbed-based footwear including sandals and closed-toe styles across the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. With a market cap of $7.2 billion, the company reported trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of $2.5 billion, up 15%, and EPS of $2.39. In recent weeks, shares around $39 have stabilized after a 52-week range of $33-$60, reflecting resilience amid capacity expansion concerns and direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel moderation. Sentiment has been influenced by analyst upgrades, such as Seaport Research to Buy, and anticipation for Q2 fiscal 2026 results on May 13, underscoring steady global brand demand despite foreign exchange (FX) pressures.
ONON Overview and Recent Performance
On Holding AG (ONON), a Swiss company founded in 2010 and based in Zurich, develops performance sports footwear, apparel, and accessories under the On brand, emphasizing CloudTec technology for running and outdoor activities. Market cap stands at $11.7 billion, with TTM revenue of $3.0 billion, reflecting 30% growth, and EPS of $0.78. Recent market activity shows shares near $35 within a 52-week range of $31-$61, pressured by CEO transition—founders resuming co-CEO roles—and wholesale challenges, though direct-to-consumer strength persists. Performance has been shaped by robust prior-year results, including 23% constant currency sales growth guidance for 2026, alongside analyst adjustments like HSBC's price target cut, ahead of Q1 earnings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BIRK and ONON operate in complementary footwear niches: Birkenstock emphasizes lifestyle and orthopedic comfort via cork footbeds, while On Holding targets premium athletic performance with cushioned running tech. Growth drivers differ—BIRK leverages brand heritage and APAC expansion (37% recent growth), versus ONON's DTC surge (41% of sales) and 30%+ revenue compounding. Recent momentum favors ONON on YTD basis but trails on valuation, with BIRK's lower P/E offering trade-offs against ONON's scale. Risk factors include FX volatility and consumer spending for both, though ONON faces higher execution risks from leadership changes. Market sentiment tilts toward ONON's growth narrative despite recent dips.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models currently favor ONON due to superior trend consistency in revenue acceleration, DTC momentum, and relative positioning in high-growth athletic wear amid sector recovery signals. While BIRK offers stability and attractive valuation, ONON's catalysts like 23%+ guidance and broader analyst upside (70% potential) suggest higher probabilistic outperformance in the near term, barring earnings surprises.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BIRK is a Hold and ONON is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BIRK’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileONON’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- BIRK’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ONON’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BIRK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONON’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BIRK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ONON’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BIRK (@Wholesale Distributors) experienced а +8.34% price change this week, while ONON (@Wholesale Distributors) price change was -0.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Wholesale Distributors industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
BIRK is expected to report earnings on Aug 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Wholesale Distributors (-0.77% weekly)Companies in this industry handle the wholesale shipments for the manufacturer of a product. They have warehouses and distribution centers, and they ship products directly to the retailer. Digitization, increasing competition, emerging customer demand, and product innovation are some of shifts that the industry has been facing in recent times – something that is potentially creating needs/opportunities for business model revisions or transformations. Data, analytics, and technology are becoming increasingly important for whole distributors in anticipating and analyzing consumer needs, and therefore planning their business strategies accordingly. Fastenal Company, W.W. Grainger, Inc., Genuine Parts Company and Pool Corporation are some of the largest names in the business.
| BIRK | ONON | BIRK / ONON | |
| Capitalization | 8.63B | 12.6B | 69% |
| EBITDA | 662M | 416M | 159% |
| Gain YTD | 14.792 | -18.847 | -78% |
| P/E Ratio | 21.10 | 39.96 | 53% |
| Revenue | 2.18B | 3.12B | 70% |
| Total Cash | 201M | 1.09B | 18% |
| Total Debt | 1.37B | 542M | 253% |
| BIRK | ONON | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 73% | 9 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 70% | 13 days ago 79% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 89% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
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BIRK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BIRK has been loosely correlated with RL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BIRK jumps, then RL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BIRK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BIRK | 100% | -4.12% | ||
| RL - BIRK | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.71% | ||
| DECK - BIRK | 45% Loosely correlated | -4.04% | ||
| VFC - BIRK | 43% Loosely correlated | -5.65% | ||
| LEVI - BIRK | 43% Loosely correlated | -1.76% | ||
| PVH - BIRK | 42% Loosely correlated | -6.43% | ||
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ONON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONON has been loosely correlated with RL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ONON jumps, then RL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONON | 100% | -0.89% | ||
| RL - ONON | 62% Loosely correlated | -0.71% | ||
| VFC - ONON | 53% Loosely correlated | -5.65% | ||
| DECK - ONON | 49% Loosely correlated | -4.04% | ||
| GIL - ONON | 49% Loosely correlated | +5.54% | ||
| UA - ONON | 48% Loosely correlated | -2.30% | ||
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