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BURL vs SHOE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Burlington Stores (BURL) vs. Shoe Carnival (SCVL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BURL maintains a significantly larger market capitalization and broader national retail footprint than SCVL, positioning it for greater scale in off-price apparel and home goods.
- Recent market activity shows BURL trading near $290 with analysts maintaining mostly positive ratings, while SCVL hovers around $15 amid more conservative forward guidance.
- BURL benefits from ongoing store expansion plans announced for May, contrasting with SCVL’s focus on rebranding initiatives and modest comparable sales expectations.
- Sector exposure differs notably: BURL emphasizes value-driven apparel retail, whereas SCVL specializes in footwear with a higher dividend yield currently near 4%.
- Relative performance in recent weeks reflects broader retail volatility, with both stocks showing sensitivity to consumer spending trends but BURL attracting more frequent analyst target upgrades.
Introduction
This comparison examines Burlington Stores and Shoe Carnival, two retail companies operating in the consumer discretionary sector. Burlington Stores focuses on off-price apparel and merchandise, while Shoe Carnival specializes in footwear retail. Investors and traders interested in relative performance, market positioning, and sector-specific dynamics may find this analysis useful for understanding how these stocks have responded to recent economic conditions and company-specific developments.
BURL Overview and Recent Performance
Burlington Stores operates as a national off-price retailer offering branded apparel, footwear, accessories, and home merchandise at competitive prices. In recent weeks, the stock has traded in a range around $290, reflecting broader market movements in the retail sector. Management announced plans to open more than two dozen new stores in May, supporting expansion efforts. Analysts have issued multiple price target increases and maintained Buy ratings through early 2026, citing solid growth outlook and strategic investments. Upcoming first-quarter fiscal 2026 results, scheduled for release on May 28, continue to draw investor attention amid ongoing store growth initiatives.
SCVL Overview and Recent Performance
Shoe Carnival runs a specialty retail chain focused on footwear for the entire family, supplemented by its Shoe Station banner. The stock has recently traded near $15.35, with performance influenced by fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results that exceeded earnings expectations but featured cautious fiscal 2026 guidance. Comparable store sales are projected to range from a slight decline to modest growth, offset by rebranding efforts and operational efficiencies. The company is set to report first-quarter 2026 results on May 21. A dividend yield near 4% provides income appeal, though the smaller market capitalization limits scale relative to larger peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Burlington Stores and Shoe Carnival differ markedly in business scale and focus. Burlington Stores leverages a larger store network and diversified merchandise mix, enabling broader exposure to value-conscious consumers across apparel and home categories. Shoe Carnival concentrates on footwear, resulting in a more specialized but narrower market reach. Recent momentum favors Burlington Stores through sustained analyst support and expansion news, while Shoe Carnival contends with more tempered sales projections. Risk factors include consumer discretionary spending sensitivity for both, though Burlington Stores’ greater size may offer relative stability. Market sentiment remains constructive overall for the off-price and specialty retail space, with Burlington Stores attracting comparatively more positive coverage in recent months.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, analyst positioning, and expansion catalysts, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a modestly higher probability of relative outperformance to Burlington Stores over the near term. The larger scale, ongoing store growth, and breadth of positive research coverage provide a more stable foundation compared with Shoe Carnival’s narrower focus and conservative outlook. This assessment remains probabilistic and subject to evolving market data.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BURL is a StrongBuy and SHOE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BURL’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileSHOE’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- BURL’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- SHOE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BURL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while SHOE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BURL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- SHOE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
BURL (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) experienced а -4.80% price change this week, while SHOE (@Apparel/Footwear Retail) price change was +0.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Apparel/Footwear Retail industry was -1.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
BURL is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
SHOE is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Apparel/Footwear Retail (-1.18% weekly)Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.
| BURL | SHOE | BURL / SHOE | |
| Capitalization | 20.2B | 433M | 4,665% |
| EBITDA | 1.33B | N/A | - |
| Gain YTD | 11.051 | -5.509 | -201% |
| P/E Ratio | 35.01 | 11.77 | 297% |
| Revenue | 11.9B | N/A | - |
| Total Cash | 747M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 5.87B | N/A | - |
BURL | SHOE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 67 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 5 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 24 | 84 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 71 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
SHOE's Valuation (5) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is significantly better than the same rating for BURL (82). This means that SHOE’s stock grew significantly faster than BURL’s over the last 12 months.
SHOE's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (100). This means that SHOE’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
BURL's SMR Rating (24) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is somewhat better than the same rating for SHOE (84). This means that BURL’s stock grew somewhat faster than SHOE’s over the last 12 months.
BURL's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as SHOE (71). This means that BURL’s stock grew similarly to SHOE’s over the last 12 months.
SHOE's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry is in the same range as BURL (29). This means that SHOE’s stock grew similarly to BURL’s over the last 12 months.
| BURL | SHOE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 90% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 70% | 18 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 4 days ago 78% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 82% |
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BURL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BURL has been loosely correlated with ROST. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if BURL jumps, then ROST could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BURL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BURL | 100% | -1.14% | ||
| ROST - BURL | 51% Loosely correlated | -0.93% | ||
| DBI - BURL | 41% Loosely correlated | +5.94% | ||
| TJX - BURL | 40% Loosely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| BOOT - BURL | 38% Loosely correlated | +1.39% | ||
| SHOE - BURL | 35% Loosely correlated | +2.11% | ||
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SHOE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SHOE has been loosely correlated with DBI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 63% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SHOE jumps, then DBI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To SHOE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHOE | 100% | +2.11% | ||
| DBI - SHOE | 63% Loosely correlated | +5.94% | ||
| CAL - SHOE | 60% Loosely correlated | +8.18% | ||
| AEO - SHOE | 57% Loosely correlated | -0.94% | ||
| BOOT - SHOE | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.39% | ||
| BKE - SHOE | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.50% | ||
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