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BX vs OWL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Blackstone (BX) vs. Blue Owl Capital (OWL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BX is the world's largest alternative asset manager with roughly $1.3 trillion in assets under management, dwarfing OWL's approximately $315 billion.
- Both stocks have faced heavy selling in recent months, but OWL has been hit harder, falling more than 40% year-to-date versus a decline of roughly 29% for BX.
- Redemption pressures in non-traded private credit funds are a central overhang for OWL, while BX has faced more moderate withdrawal headlines.
- BX is more diversified across private equity, real estate, and credit; OWL is more concentrated in credit-oriented and permanent capital strategies.
- Both firms are positioning for AI-driven infrastructure financing, which offers a growth catalyst but also concentrates attention on private credit risk.
Introduction
Blackstone and Blue Owl Capital are two of the most closely watched names in the alternative asset management industry, yet they occupy very different positions on the spectrum of scale and strategy. BX is the established global leader with a multi-trillion-dollar platform, while OWL is a faster-growing but smaller firm built around credit, real assets, and strategic capital. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors and traders who want to weigh a diversified market leader against a higher-beta, more specialized alternative manager amid rising private credit scrutiny. Examining relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning helps clarify the trade-offs between stability and growth-oriented exposure.
BX Overview and Recent Performance
Blackstone Inc. (BX) is the world's largest alternative asset manager, operating across private equity, real estate, credit and insurance, and other alternatives. In its most recent quarterly report, the firm posted distributable earnings of $1.36 per share, up 25% year over year, while total assets under management (AUM) crossed $1.3 trillion and fee-earning AUM rose 9% to $937.6 billion. The quarter was supported by roughly $70 billion of inflows, with the credit and insurance segment contributing $37 billion.
Despite strong fundamentals, sentiment around BX has cooled in recent weeks. The shares have declined notably from earlier levels, reflecting broader pressure on alternative asset manager stocks, redemption activity in the firm's flagship private credit fund (BCRED), and concern about elevated expenses. Offsetting these headwinds, Blackstone has been active in AI infrastructure financing, including a reported $9 billion chip-financing role tied to Anthropic. Analyst consensus remains constructive, with an average price target implying meaningful upside from recent levels.
OWL Overview and Recent Performance
Blue Owl Capital Inc. (OWL) is an alternative asset manager focused on three platforms: Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital, anchored by a permanent capital base. As of its latest quarter, the firm reported roughly $315 billion in AUM, up 15% year over year, with fee-earning AUM of $188.4 billion. Distributable earnings were $0.19 per share, with fee-related earnings of $0.25 per share, and total revenues rose about 10% to $753.8 million.
The stock's recent performance, however, has been far more turbulent. OWL fell to an all-time low in early April and has lost a substantial share of its value from its January 2025 peak, making it one of the hardest-hit names in the sector. The primary driver has been a surge in redemption requests across its non-traded private credit funds, which prompted the firm to impose withdrawal caps. Although management has emphasized that fundamental performance remains stable and fundraising continues, market sentiment has been dominated by liquidity and private credit concerns, and reports have surfaced of investment bankers exploring a potential sale.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
From a business model standpoint, BX operates as a broad, diversified alternative asset manager spanning private equity, real estate, and credit, with a large institutional client base. OWL is more specialized, concentrating on credit, real assets, and GP stakes with a heavy reliance on permanent and long-duration capital. This gives BX greater revenue diversification, while OWL offers a more focused growth profile.
On growth drivers, both firms are leaning into AI and digital infrastructure financing. BX has pursued large-scale AI chip and data center deals, while OWL has participated in multi-billion-dollar data center projects alongside major technology partners. In terms of risk, OWL carries a more acute redemption and liquidity risk tied to its non-traded funds, whereas BX faces comparatively milder withdrawal headlines. Market sentiment has been more negative toward OWL, whose deeper drawdown and higher dividend yield reflect a greater perceived risk premium.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, relative drawdown, and diversification, Tickeron's AI would likely favor BX over OWL in the current environment. Blackstone's broader business mix, stronger scale, and steadier earnings trajectory suggest more consistent trend stability, while Blue Owl's concentrated exposure to private credit redemptions introduces higher volatility and a less defined catalyst path. That said, OWL's deeper valuation reset and high yield could appeal to strategies oriented toward mean reversion. The AI's preference would remain probabilistic, weighted toward the relative positioning and lower tail risk currently demonstrated by BX.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BX is a StrongBuy and OWL is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for BX turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BX saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 78 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 63 of the 78 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BX's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 25 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BX just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where BX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +3.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BX advanced for three days, in 199 of 293 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for BX moved below the 200-day moving average on October 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
BX broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for BX entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BX’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BX's P/B Ratio (10.004) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.420). P/E Ratio (26.877) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.848). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.048) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.037) settles around the average of (0.268) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.148) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
OWL's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OWL turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where OWL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 26, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OWL as a result. In 57 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
OWL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +11.82% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OWL advanced for three days, in 224 of 298 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OWL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
OWL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for OWL entered a downward trend on October 26, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 39 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OWL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 84 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.638) is normal, around the industry mean (2.420). P/E Ratio (88.500) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.848). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.146) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.087) settles around the average of (0.268) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.303) is also within normal values, averaging (15.694).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OWL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock worse than average.
BX | OWL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 36 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 86 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 86 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | 84 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 39 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OWL's Valuation (86) in the null industry is in the same range as BX (91) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that OWL’s stock grew similarly to BX’s over the last 12 months.
BX's Profit vs Risk Rating (80) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as OWL (100) in the null industry. This means that BX’s stock grew similarly to OWL’s over the last 12 months.
BX's SMR Rating (32) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OWL (86) in the null industry. This means that BX’s stock grew somewhat faster than OWL’s over the last 12 months.
OWL's Price Growth Rating (48) in the null industry is in the same range as BX (57) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that OWL’s stock grew similarly to BX’s over the last 12 months.
BX's P/E Growth Rating (83) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as OWL (84) in the null industry. This means that BX’s stock grew similarly to OWL’s over the last 12 months.
| BX | OWL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 68% | 6 days ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 69% | 8 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 80% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BX’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while OWL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- BX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- OWL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BX’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OWL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- OWL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BX (@Investment Managers) experienced а +1.87% price change this week, while OWL (@Investment Managers) price change was +13.70% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was +0.18%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.53%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4.15%.
Reported Earning Dates
BX is expected to report earnings on Jan 28, 2027.
OWL is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (+0.18% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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OWL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OWL has been closely correlated with ARES. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OWL jumps, then ARES could also see price increases.