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CGAU vs NEM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) vs. Newmont Corporation (NEM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) has delivered stronger relative price performance in recent market activity, with notable year-to-date gains driven by operational improvements and expanded share buybacks.
- Newmont Corporation (NEM), the world’s largest gold producer, offers greater scale, diversification across multiple jurisdictions, and robust free cash flow generation from its large portfolio.
- Both stocks operate in the gold mining sector and have benefited from elevated gold prices, though CGAU exhibits higher volatility typical of mid-tier producers while NEM provides more stability.
- Recent quarterly results for both companies showed production guidance increases or maintenance alongside strong cash generation, supporting positive sentiment in recent weeks.
- Valuation metrics indicate CGAU trades at a lower price-to-earnings ratio compared to NEM, reflecting differences in size and growth profiles.
- Market positioning contrasts a focused North American and Turkish asset base at CGAU with NEM’s global operations and significant liquidity position.
Introduction
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) and Newmont Corporation (NEM) represent two distinct profiles within the gold mining industry. This comparison examines their business models, recent performance trends, and relative positioning amid ongoing strength in gold prices. Institutional investors, active traders, and portfolio managers evaluating sector allocation may find the analysis relevant for assessing trade-offs between a mid-tier producer with focused assets and the sector’s largest operator. The review emphasizes verifiable developments from recent market activity without forward-looking speculation.
CGAU Overview and Recent Performance
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) is a mid-tier gold and copper producer with primary operations at the Mount Milligan mine in Canada and the Öksüt mine in Turkey. In recent weeks, the stock has shown upward momentum supported by strong second-quarter 2026 operational results, including increased gold production guidance for Öksüt and an expansion of the share buyback program to $200 million for the year. Consolidated production guidance was raised accordingly. The company reported solid net earnings and maintained healthy operating margins through cost discipline. Sentiment has been further bolstered by a retail investor webinar and analyst consensus leaning toward moderate buy ratings, reflecting confidence in self-funded growth initiatives and cash flow generation from core assets.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is the world’s largest gold producer with a diversified portfolio spanning multiple continents and metals including copper. Recent market activity has featured resilient performance, with the company reporting strong second-quarter 2026 results that included approximately 1.3 million attributable gold ounces, record free cash flow, and maintenance of full-year production guidance. Liquidity remained robust at around $13 billion. The stock has responded to broader gold price movements and sector dynamics, including temporary volatility tied to macroeconomic announcements. Ongoing share repurchase activity and a stable dividend have contributed to shareholder returns amid the company’s scale advantages.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU) and Newmont Corporation (NEM) differ markedly in scale and risk profile. NEM operates as a global leader with a market capitalization exceeding $130 billion, multiple revenue streams, and substantial liquidity that supports resilience during sector fluctuations. In contrast, CGAU maintains a more concentrated asset base, enabling potentially faster responsiveness to production improvements but exposing it to greater single-region or single-asset risks. Recent momentum has favored CGAU on a relative basis due to buyback expansion and guidance lifts, while NEM emphasizes consistent cash returns and operational scale. Valuation multiples reflect these differences, with CGAU generally appearing at a discount on earnings metrics. Both remain sensitive to gold price movements, though NEM’s diversification provides a buffer compared to CGAU’s focused exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as recent trend consistency, production catalysts, and relative positioning within the gold sector, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU). The stock’s stronger recent performance, combined with expanded capital return initiatives and upward guidance revisions, aligns with momentum signals that the models prioritize. Newmont Corporation (NEM) remains a stable benchmark choice for investors seeking scale and liquidity, but the AI framework places greater weight on CGAU’s near-term operational tailwinds in the current environment. This assessment reflects pattern recognition rather than definitive outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CGAU is a StrongBuy and NEM is a StrongBuy.
CGAU | NEM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 23 Undervalued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 38 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CGAU's Valuation (23) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NEM (76) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew somewhat faster than NEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the null industry is in the same range as NEM (32) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as NEM (38) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Price Growth Rating (38) in the null industry is in the same range as NEM (45) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CGAU (99) in the null industry. This means that NEM’s stock grew somewhat faster than CGAU’s over the last 12 months.
| CGAU | NEM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 69% | 10 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 62% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CGAU’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while NEM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CGAU’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NEM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CGAU’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NEM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CGAU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NEM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CGAU (@Precious Metals) experienced а +5.18% price change this week, while NEM (@Precious Metals) price change was +1.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +0.25%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -11.08%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.92%.
Reported Earning Dates
CGAU is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
NEM is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+0.25% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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CGAU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CGAU has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CGAU jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CGAU | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGAU | 100% | +3.30% | ||
| AEM - CGAU | 89% Closely correlated | +2.80% | ||
| IAG - CGAU | 89% Closely correlated | +2.17% | ||
| WPM - CGAU | 89% Closely correlated | +2.73% | ||
| KGC - CGAU | 87% Closely correlated | +1.71% | ||
| NEM - CGAU | 86% Closely correlated | +1.98% | ||
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NEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NEM has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NEM jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.