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CGAU vs NEM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Centerra Gold (CGAU) vs. Newmont (NEM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale contrast: NEM is the world's largest gold miner with a globally diversified portfolio, while CGAU is a mid-cap producer focused on a concentrated set of North American and Turkish assets.
- Momentum: CGAU has posted an exceptionally strong run over the past year, while NEM has delivered more measured but steady appreciation.
- Cash generation: NEM generated a record $3.1 billion in quarterly free cash flow, whereas CGAU generated a smaller but rapidly improving free cash flow on a much lower revenue base.
- Balance sheet: CGAU operates with zero long-term debt and a substantial cash position, while NEM carries a larger balance sheet typical of a diversified major.
- Risk profile: NEM benefits from geographic diversification but faces country-level fiscal risks; CGAU carries higher single-asset and geopolitical concentration risk.
- Analyst posture: Both names carry broadly constructive consensus ratings, though their valuation multiples and target-upside profiles differ materially.
Introduction
Gold miners have drawn substantial investor attention as bullion prices remain historically elevated, reshaping cash flows and valuations across the sector. This stock comparison evaluates two companies operating at opposite ends of the gold-mining spectrum: Centerra Gold Inc. (CGAU), a focused mid-tier producer, and Newmont Corporation (NEM), the industry's largest player. For traders and investors weighing relative performance, market positioning, and risk-adjusted exposure to gold, understanding how a concentrated growth story stacks up against a diversified blue-chip miner provides a useful framework for evaluating where opportunity and stability currently reside.
CGAU Overview and Recent Performance
Centerra Gold is a Toronto-based gold and copper producer whose core assets are the Mount Milligan mine in British Columbia, Canada, and the Öksüt mine in Turkey, supplemented by a pipeline of growth projects including Kemess, Goldfield, and the Thompson Creek restart. In recent market activity, the stock has been among the sector's strongest performers, reflecting a combination of higher realized metal prices, improved operational execution, and a notably clean balance sheet characterized by zero long-term debt and a cash balance that has climbed above $500 million.
Recent quarterly results showed a sharp year-over-year revenue increase, a significant jump in net earnings, and positive free cash flow, supported by stronger output at Mount Milligan and favorable grades at Öksüt. The company has also expanded its share-buyback program and maintained a modest dividend. Sentiment has been reinforced by multiple analyst price-target increases, though rising insider selling and profit-taking after an extended rally have introduced some near-term caution around valuation.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold producer, operating roughly 21 production sites across North America, Australia, South America, Africa, and Papua New Guinea. Its diversified portfolio spans gold, copper, silver, zinc, and lead, giving it broad exposure to metals markets while reducing reliance on any single asset or jurisdiction. In recent weeks, the company has reported record quarterly earnings and record free cash flow, driven by higher gold and silver prices and disciplined capital spending.
Newmont has paired this cash generation with an enhanced capital-allocation framework, including an increased share-repurchase authorization and continued dividends. The stock has delivered solid gains over the past six months, outpacing its gold-mining peer group, while consensus analyst ratings remain firmly in "Buy" territory with a rising average price target. Key watch items include country-level fiscal changes in Ghana, which are expected to add modestly to all-in sustaining costs (AISC, a widely used metric of total mine operating and capital costs per ounce), and the resumption of normal operations at certain sites.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking difference between these two names is scale and diversification. NEM's multi-continent footprint and output measured in millions of ounces provide stability and breadth, while CGAU's concentrated portfolio creates higher operating leverage to gold and copper prices, magnifying both upside and downside. This is evident in recent relative performance: CGAU's share price has appreciated far more dramatically than NEM's over the past year, reflecting its higher beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market) and smaller base.
Growth drivers also differ. CGAU is pursuing organic expansion through projects such as Kemess and the Thompson Creek restart, which carry execution risk but offer meaningful long-term upside. NEM, by contrast, is focused on portfolio optimization, cost discipline, and returning record cash flow to shareholders. On risk, NEM faces fiscal and operational challenges spread across many jurisdictions, while CGAU's exposure is more concentrated in Turkey's geopolitical environment and its Canadian flagship asset. From a market-sentiment standpoint, both names enjoy positive analyst coverage, but NEM trades at a higher absolute price with a larger institutional following, whereas CGAU's valuation reflects a cheaper multiple alongside greater sensitivity to a single asset or region.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NEM as the more consistent, lower-volatility holding in the current environment. NEM's record free cash flow, diversified asset base, and steady upward trend offer the kind of stability and catalyst depth that algorithmic models typically reward. CGAU, while displaying stronger momentum and compelling fundamentals, presents a more volatile and concentrated risk profile. In probabilistic terms, the AI's tilt toward NEM reflects a preference for trend durability and diversification over pure momentum, though CGAU remains a higher-beta candidate that may appeal under different risk conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CGAU is a Hold and NEM is a StrongBuy.
CGAU in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CGAU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CGAU as a result. In 58 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CGAU turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 52 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 52 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
CGAU moved below its 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CGAU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator for CGAU entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 48 of 65 cases where CGAU's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +4.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CGAU advanced for three days, in 238 of 315 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
CGAU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.770) is normal, around the industry mean (1.934). P/E Ratio (6.265) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-13.500). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.010) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.333) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.544) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CGAU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 66 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
Momentum Indicator for NEM turns positive, indicating new upward trend
NEM saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 04, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 62 of the 79 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 58 cases where NEM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NEM just turned positive on November 04, 2026. Looking at past instances where NEM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 45 of 58 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Following a +3.20% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 250 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 83%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NEM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.213) is normal, around the industry mean (1.934). P/E Ratio (13.501) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-13.500). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.333) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
CGAU | NEM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 37 Fair valued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 31 | 38 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 66 | 40 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CGAU's Valuation (37) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NEM (93) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew somewhat faster than NEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the null industry is in the same range as NEM (29) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's SMR Rating (31) in the null industry is in the same range as NEM (38) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
CGAU's Price Growth Rating (45) in the null industry is in the same range as NEM (50) in the Precious Metals industry. This means that CGAU’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (40) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as CGAU (66) in the null industry. This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to CGAU’s over the last 12 months.
| CGAU | NEM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 78% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 76% | 8 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 69% | 6 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 65% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CGAU’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NEM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CGAU’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NEM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CGAU’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NEM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CGAU’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NEM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CGAU (@Precious Metals) experienced а +1.09% price change this week, while NEM (@Precious Metals) price change was +3.68% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -1.61%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.46%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.09%.
Reported Earning Dates
CGAU is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
NEM is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-1.61% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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CGAU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CGAU has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 88% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CGAU jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CGAU | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGAU | 100% | +9.18% | ||
| AEM - CGAU | 88% Closely correlated | +9.67% | ||
| WPM - CGAU | 88% Closely correlated | +11.99% | ||
| IAG - CGAU | 88% Closely correlated | +10.22% | ||
| NEM - CGAU | 86% Closely correlated | +9.90% | ||
| B - CGAU | 86% Closely correlated | +8.31% | ||
More | ||||
NEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NEM has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NEM jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
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