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GFI vs NEM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Gold Fields (GFI) vs. Newmont (NEM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- GFI (Gold Fields Limited) and NEM (Newmont Corporation) are both major gold producers, but they differ sharply in scale, geographic footprint, and cost structure.
- Newmont is the world's largest gold miner by output and market capitalization, while Gold Fields operates a smaller, more geographically concentrated portfolio.
- Both companies have benefited from elevated gold prices, with realized prices near $4,700–$4,900 per ounce in recent reporting periods.
- Gold Fields generated strong free cash flow growth and moved to a near net-cash position, while Newmont posted record quarterly free cash flow and authorized a new $6 billion buyback program.
- Gold Fields carries sovereign and merger-and-acquisition (M&A) uncertainty, whereas Newmont faces production declines and rising unit costs.
Introduction
Investors tracking the gold-mining sector often weigh GFI and NEM as two distinct ways to gain exposure to precious metals. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand how a mid-sized, globally diversified producer differs from the industry's largest operator in terms of relative performance, cost discipline, growth drivers, and market positioning. Both companies have reported strong results amid elevated gold prices, yet their risk profiles and momentum characteristics diverge. Understanding those trade-offs can help clarify which name may be better suited to different investment objectives and risk tolerances in the current market environment.
GFI Overview and Recent Performance
Gold Fields Limited is a global gold producer with operations across South Africa, Ghana, Australia, Peru, Chile, and Canada. In recent weeks, the company reported robust first-half results for its 2026 fiscal year, with attributable production rising roughly 12% year over year and sales volumes up 18%. A materially higher average realized gold price, around $4,678 per ounce, helped adjusted free cash flow more than double, while net debt fell sharply and net debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) declined to roughly 0.06 times.
Sentiment has been supported by strong cash generation, a 132% increase in the interim dividend, and an expanded share buyback program, with the Salares Norte mine in Chile standing out for a 173% jump in production. However, the shares have also faced headwinds from sovereign risk tied to the pending Tarkwa lease renewal in Ghana, delays in the Windfall project's environmental approval, and renewed merger activity, including a bid for Northern Star Resources. These factors have contributed to volatile trading and a weaker momentum profile in recent market activity.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold producer, with a diversified portfolio spanning North America, South America, Australia, Africa, and Papua New Guinea. In recent periods, the company has benefited substantially from record gold prices, reporting a quarterly average realized gold price near $4,900 per ounce and record quarterly free cash flow of approximately $3.1 billion. Revenues and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beat analyst estimates, supported by favorable silver and copper byproduct credits.
Newmont has also strengthened its balance sheet to a net cash position and authorized an additional $6 billion share repurchase program after fully executing its prior authorization. That said, attributable gold production has declined year over year, reflecting weather disruptions, lower grades, and planned maintenance across several assets. Rising unit costs, an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) that has increased, and ongoing legal and commercial disputes over the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture with Barrick have tempered sentiment. Despite these pressures, the stock has maintained a relatively stable, longer-term uptrend and trades with lower volatility than many peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies diverge most clearly in scale and diversification. Newmont operates a larger, more geographically diverse asset base and generates substantially higher absolute cash flow, which supports a bigger share repurchase program and a more defensive market positioning. Gold Fields, by contrast, is smaller and more exposed to single-asset and single-jurisdiction risks, notably the Tarkwa lease in Ghana and the pending Windfall project in Canada.
On costs, Gold Fields reported an AISC of $1,893 per ounce in its recent half-year results, while Newmont's co-product AISC came in lower at around $1,709 per ounce, aided by byproduct credits. Both face cost inflation, but Newmont's production has been declining while Gold Fields has been growing output, driven by Salares Norte. In terms of shareholder returns, Gold Fields offers a notably higher dividend yield and a near net-cash balance sheet, whereas Newmont prioritizes buybacks and scale.
Risk factors also differ. Gold Fields carries sovereign and M&A overhang, which has weighed on its momentum score, while Newmont faces execution risk around mine transitions, rising costs, and joint-venture disputes. Sector exposure is similar, but Newmont's copper and silver byproducts provide some commodity diversification that Gold Fields largely lacks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NEM over GFI in the current environment. Newmont's larger scale, broader diversification, stronger liquidity, and steadier long-term uptrend suggest a more consistent risk-adjusted profile, even as production and cost headwinds persist. Gold Fields offers compelling free cash flow growth, a lower valuation, and a near net-cash balance sheet, but its weaker momentum and elevated sovereign and M&A uncertainty introduce greater variability. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting a balance of trend stability against valuation and catalyst risk, and is not intended as personalized investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is GFI is a Hold and NEM is a Hold.
GFI in -3.64% downward trend, declining for three consecutive days on October 20, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where GFI declined for three days, in 216 of 283 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 41 of 54 cases where GFI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GFI as a result. In 67 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
GFI moved below its 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GFI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
GFI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for GFI entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where GFI's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 14 of 20 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GFI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where GFI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Following a +5.77% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GFI advanced for three days, in 261 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 41 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.488) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (7.157) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.099) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.312) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. GFI’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NEM in -1.51% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 20, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where NEM declined for three days, in 181 of 276 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 62 cases where NEM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NEM as a result. In 47 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NEM just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where NEM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +6.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 252 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.412) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (14.335) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
GFI | NEM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 41 Fair valued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 45 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 24 | 38 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFI's Valuation (41) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NEM (93). This means that GFI’s stock grew somewhat faster than NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (45). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
GFI's SMR Rating (24) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (38). This means that GFI’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (59). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for GFI (93). This means that NEM’s stock grew somewhat faster than GFI’s over the last 12 months.
| GFI | NEM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 80% | 7 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
GFI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while NEM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- GFI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NEM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
GFI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NEM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- GFI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- NEM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
GFI (@Precious Metals) experienced а -5.26% price change this week, while NEM (@Precious Metals) price change was -1.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -5.92%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -20.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
GFI is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
NEM is expected to report earnings on Feb 25, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-5.92% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
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